Ultra Petroleum (Ultra Petroleum) Predictability Rank

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What is Ultra Petroleum Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ultra Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ultra Petroleum (Ultra Petroleum) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Ultra Petroleum Corp (OTCPK:UPLCQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

116 Inverness Drive East, Suite 400, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112

Website

http://www.ultrapetroleum.com

Ultra Petroleum Corp is an independent oil and gas company. The company is engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration, and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties. It's Pinedale and Jonah Fields in southwest Wyoming's Green River Basin are two of the largest natural gas fields in the United States.

Executives

Kason Kerr	officer: VP, Gen Counsel, Corp Secy	C/O ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP. 116 INVERNESS DRIVE EAST, SUITE 400 ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Scoggins Edward Andrew Jr.	director	C/O ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP, 400 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PKWY EAST, ST 1200, HOUSTON TX 77060
Neal P Goldman	director	10700 PARKRIDGE BLVD., RESTON VA 20191
Mark T Solomon	officer: VP, Chf Acctg Ofr, Controller	C/O ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP., 116 EAST INVERNESS DRIVE, SUITE 400, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Sylvia K. Barnes	director	4853 POST OAK TIMBER DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Stratton J. Jay Jr.	officer: Sr VP, Chief Operating Officer	C/O ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP. 116 EAST INVERNESS DRIVE, SUITE 400 ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
C Bradley Johnson	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP. 116 INVERNESS DRIVE EAST, SUITE 400 ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
David W Honeyfield	officer: Sr VP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP., 116 INVERNESS DRIVE EAST SUITE 400, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Fir Tree Inc.	10 percent owner	500 FIFTH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Michael J Keeffe	director	400 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E. SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77060
James N Whyte	officer: Sr VP, Chief HR Officer	C/O ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP, 116 EAST INVERNESS DRIVE, SUITE 400, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Stephen James Mcdaniel	director	363 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E., SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77060
Alan J. Mintz	director	555 FIFTH AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
A Kent Rogers	officer: V.P., Drilling & Completions	400 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E. SUITE 1200 HOUSTON TX 77060
Maree K. Delgado	officer: See Remarks	116 INVERNESS DRIVE EAST, SUITE 400 ENGLEWOOD CO 80112