Reaves Utilityome Fund (Reaves Utilityome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Reaves Utilityome Fund Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reaves Utilityome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Reaves Utilityome Fund (Reaves Utilityome Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Reaves Utility Income Fund (AMEX:UTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1700 Broadway, Suite 1230, Denver, CO, USA, 80290

Website

https://www.utilityincomefund.com

Reaves Utility Income Fund is a closed-end management investment company. The company's investment objective is to provide a high level of after-tax income and total return consisting of tax-advantaged dividend income and capital appreciation. It invests a portion of its total assets in securities of utility companies, which may include companies in the electric, gas, water, telecommunications sectors, as well as other companies engaged in other infrastructure operations.

Executives

Thomas Michael Grimes	other: Officer of Investment Advisor	C/O W. H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Reaves W H & Co Inc	other: Officer of Investment Advisor	REAVES W H & CO INC, 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Rhame Joseph Burns Iii	other: Officer of Investment Advisor	C/O W.H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Christopher Moore	officer: Secretary	1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1850, DENVER CO 80290
Jennell Panella	officer: Treasurer	1250 BROADWAY, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80203
Thomas W Harmke	officer: Officer of Investment Adviser	C/O W. H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Sareena Khwaja-dixon	officer: Secretary	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Erich Rettinger	officer: Treasurer	1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Louis Francisco Cimino	other: Officer of Investment Adviser	C/O W. H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Kelly Mcewen	officer: Treasurer	5050 S. SYRACUSE ST., SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Wilhelm Rowland Otto Jr	other: Officer of Investment Advisor	C/O W. H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FL., JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Ronald James Sorenson	other: Officer of Investment Adviser	C/O W. H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Jeremy O May	director	1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1850, DENVER CO 80290
Brian Wallace Weeks	other: Officer of Investment Advisor	C/O W. H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
William Avrum Ferer	other: Officer of Investment Adviser	C/O W. H. REAVES & CO., INC., 10 EXCHANGE PLACE, 18TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302