Vaccinex (Vaccinex) Predictability Rank

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What is Vaccinex Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vaccinex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vaccinex (Vaccinex) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vaccinex Inc (NAS:VCNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1895 Mount Hope Avenue, Rochester, NY, USA, 14620

Website

https://www.vaccinex.com

Vaccinex Inc is pioneering a differentiated approach to treating cancer and slowly progressive neurodegenerative diseases through the inhibition of semaphorin 4D (SEMA4D). The company's lead drug candidate, pepinemab, blocks SEMA4D, a potent biological effector that it believes prevents immune infiltration into tumors and triggers inflammation in chronic diseases of the brain. Pepinemab is being evaluated in a Phase 1b/2 study in recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer and in a Phase 1/2a study in Alzheimer's Disease, with ongoing exploration of potential Phase 3 development in Huntington's disease. The firm has also developed a proprietary drug discovery platform, ActivMAb. The firm generates revenue from collaborative research, license, development and commercialization agreements.

Executives

Van Strydonck, Gerald E.	director	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Maurice Zauderer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Albert Friedberg	director, 10 percent owner
Jacob B. Frieberg	director	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Elizabeth E. Evans	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O VACCINEX, INC., 1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Robert Scala	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	1895 MT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Chrystyna Bedrij Stecyk	director	1895 MT. HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Vaccinex, Inc.	director	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Jeff Goater	director	C/O SURFACE ONCOLOGY, INC., 50 HAMPSHIRE STREET, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Bala S Manian	director	1025 TERRA BELLA AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Barbara Yanni	director	1018 W. 8TH AVENUE, SUITE A, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Alejandro M. Berlin	director	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
John E. Leonard	officer: SVP, Development	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Ernest S. Smith	officer: SVP, Research & CSO	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620
Raymond E. Watkins	officer: SVP & Chief Operating Officer	1895 MOUNT HOPE AVENUE, ROCHESTER NY 14620