Venus Concept (Venus Concept) Predictability Rank

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What is Venus Concept Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Venus Concept Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Venus Concept (Venus Concept) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Venus Concept Inc (NAS:VERO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

235 Yorkland Boulevard, Suite 900, Toronto, ON, CAN, M2J 4Y8

Website

https://www.venusconcept.com

Venus Concept Inc is a medical technology company. It develops, commercializes, and delivers minimally invasive and non-invasive medical aesthetic and hair restoration technologies and related services. The company's products include NeoGraft, Venus Viva, Venus Legacy, Venus Versa, Venus Velocity, Venus Heal, Venus Bliss, ARTAS systems, and others. The company provides medical devices and treatments for hair, body, and skin-related problems. It generates a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Anthony Natale	director	235 YORKLAND BLVD., SUITE 900, TORONTO A6 M2J 4Y8
Ross Portaro	officer: President Global Sales	235 YORKLAND BLVD, SUITE 900, TORONTO Z4 M2J 4Y8
Michael Willingham Masters	10 percent owner	3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 1425, ATLANTA GA 30305
Silva Rajiv De	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1400 ATWATER DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Stanley Tyler Hollmig	director	235 YORKLAND BLVD, SUITE 900, TORONTO Z4 M2J 4Y8
Hemanth Jacob Varghese	officer: President/Chief Bus. Officer	330 JOICEY BOULEVARD, TORONTO A6 M5M2W1
Marlin Fund, Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 1425, ATLANTA GA 30305
Masters Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 1425, ATLANTA GA 30305
Marlin Fund Iii, Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 1425, ATLANTA GA 30305
Marlin Master Fund Offshore Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	WAYSTONE CORP SV (CAYMAN) LTD, STE 5B201, FL 2, 1 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, BOX 1344, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Mss Vc Spv Lp	10 percent owner	C/O MASTERS SPECIAL SITUATIONS, LLC, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD, NW, STE.1425, ATLANTA GA 30305
Marlin Fund Ii, Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 1425, ATLANTA GA 30305
Masters Special Situations, Llc	10 percent owner	3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 1425, ATLANTA GA 30305
Penna Domenic Della	officer: Chief Financial Officer	235 YORKLAND BLVD., SUITE 900, TORONTO A6 M2J 4Y8
Anna Georgiadis	officer: VP, Global HR	235 YORKLAND BLVD., SUITE 900, TORONTO A6 M2J 4Y8