Vince Holding (Vince Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Vince Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vince Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vince Holding (Vince Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Vince Holding Corp (NYSE:VNCE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VNC1:Germany

Address

500 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10110

Website

https://www.vince.com

Vince Holding Corp is a fashion brand that is engaged in wholesale and retail delivery of luxury essentials like women's and men's apparel, women's and men's footwear, and handbags. Its offers women's collections of luxurious cashmere sweaters and silk blouses, leather and suede leggings and jackets, dresses, denim, pants, tanks and t-shirts, and a growing assortment of outerwear. It focuses on developing an elevated collection of Vince apparel and accessories to serve the luxurious need of the customer. The company manages its business in three segments namely Vince Wholesale, Vince Direct-to-consumer, and Rebecca Taylor and Parker segment. It operates its e-commerce business through its website. Majority of its revenue generated from Vince Wholesale segment.

Executives

Michael J Mardy	director
Michael Hand	officer: Interim CFO	650 FROM RD, SUITE 375, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Jonathan Schwefel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	500 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 101100
David Stefko	officer: See Remarks	500 FIFTH AVE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Marie Fogel	officer: See Remarks	500 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Lee Meiner	officer: See Remarks	500 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Akiko Okuma	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	500 FIFTH AVE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Amy Kate Trooskin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	500 FIFTH AVE., 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Kelli Turner	director	C/O CME MEDIA SERVICES LTD, KRIZENECKEHO NAM. 1078/5A, PRAGUE 2N 15200
Brendan Hoffman	officer: Chief Executive Officer	100 PIER 1 PLACE, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Robin S Kramer	director	500 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Matthew N Garff	director	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 1050, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Jeff M Feinberg	director	500 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10110
Sun Capital Partners V Lp	10 percent owner	5200 TOWN CENTER CIRCLE, STE 600, BOCA RATON FL 33486
Marc J Leder	director, 10 percent owner	5200 TOWN CENTER CIRCLE, SUITE 600, BOCA RATON FL 33486