Vroom (VRM) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Vroom Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vroom Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Vroom Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vroom's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Vroom (VRM) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Vroom Inc (NAS:VRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VRM:Mexico

Address

3600 West Sam Houston Parkway South, Floor 4, Houston, TX, USA, 77042

Website

https://www.vroom.com

Vroom Inc is an end-to-end e-commerce platform for the used vehicle industry. The Company's scalable, data-driven technology brings all phases of the car buying and selling process to consumers offering an extensive selection of used vehicles, transparent pricing, competitive financing, and at-home pick-up and delivery. Its three reportable segments are: The E-commerce segment represents retail sales of used vehicles through its e-commerce platform and fees earned on sales of value-added products associated with those vehicle sales, The Wholesale segment represents sales of used vehicles through wholesale channels, and The Retail Financing segment represents UACC's operations with its network of third-party dealership customers.

Executives

Thomas H Shortt	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O VROOM INC, 1375 BROADWAY, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Agnieszka Zakowicz	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O VROOM, INC., 1375 BROADWAY, FLOOR 11, NEW YORK NY 10018
Robert R. Krakowiak	officer: Chief Financial Officer	633 NATALIE LANE, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Mylod Robert J Jr	director
Patricia Moran	officer: See remarks	GREENHILL & CO., 300 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Carol Denise Stott	officer: See remarks	C/O VROOM, INC., 1375 BROADWAY, FLOOR 11, NEW YORK NY 10018
Laura W Lang	director	DIGITAS INC., 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Timothy M Crow	director	2455 PACES FERRY ROAD, NW, ATLANTA GA 30339
Paul J. Hennessy	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SHUTTERSTOCK, INC., 350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
Catterton Management Company, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
David K. Jones	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1375 BROADWAY, FLOOR 11, NEW YORK NY 10018
Scott Arnold Dahnke	director, 10 percent owner	599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cgp2 Lone Star, L.p.	10 percent owner	599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06930
Frederick Terrell	director	17 STATE STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Paula B Pretlow	director	C/O CION ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067