What is Wrap Technologies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Wrap Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Wrap Technologies (Wrap Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1817 West 4th Street, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281
Wrap Technologies Inc offers public safety technologies and services. The firm develops policing solutions to law enforcement and security personnel. Its BolaWRAP 150 Remote Restraint device is a patented, hand-held tool that discharges a Kevlar cord to restrain noncompliant individuals from a range of 10-25 feet. The group operates in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Executives
| Timothy Szymanski |
director |
C/O WRAP TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1817 W 4TH STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281 |
| Rajiv Srinivasan |
director |
C/O WRAP TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1817 W 4TH STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281 |
| Kevin W Mullins |
officer: PRESIDENT |
C/O WRAP TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1817 W 4TH STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281 |
| Christopher James Dealmeida |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1817 W 4TH STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281 |
| Elwood G Norris |
10 percent owner |
13771 DANIELSON STREET, STE. L, POWAY CA 92064 |
| Bruce Bernstein |
director |
780 THIRD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Marc Savas |
director |
8033 SUNSET BLVD., BOX 873, LOS ANGELES CA 90046 |
| Tj Kennedy |
director |
400 S 4TH ST, STE. 401-412, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55415 |
| Scot Cohen |
director, officer: Executive Chairman, Secretary |
20 EAST 20TH ST., APT. 6, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
| Kevin Charles Sherman |
director |
1730 BLAKE ST STE 305, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Glenn M Hickman |
officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER |
C/O WRAP TECHNOLOGIES, 1817 W 4TH STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281 |
| Varner Leo William Jr. |
officer: INTERIM CEO |
400 GALLERIA PKWY SE, SUITE 1760, ATLANTA GA 30339 |
| James A Barnes |
director, officer: President and CFO |
13771 DANIELSON STREET, STE. L, POWAY CA 92064 |
| Thomas P Smith |
officer: PRESIDENT |
7860 EAST MCCLAIN DRIVE SUITE E, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260-1627 |
| David G Norris |
director, officer: President |
C/O TREE.COM, INC., 11115 RUSHMORE DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
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