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Warren Resources (Warren Resources) Predictability Rank


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What is Warren Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Warren Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Warren Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Warren Resources (Warren Resources) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Warren Resources Inc was incorporated on June 12, 1990 as a Delaware corporation. The Company is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development and production of domestic onshore crude oil and gas reserves. The Company primarily on the exploration and development of its waterflood oil recovery properties in the Wilmington field within the Los Angeles Basin of California, and its coalbed methane, or CBM, natural gas properties located in the Rocky Mountain region. As of December 31, 2013, the company owned natural gas and oil leasehold interests in approximately 123,943 gross (93,350 net) acres, approximately 80% of which are undeveloped. The Washakie Basin is located in the southeast portion of the Greater Green River Basin in southwestern Wyoming and represents its largest acreage position. As of December 31, 2013, the company owned 113,227 gross (87,683 net) acres prospective for CBM development in this area, of which 69,221 net acres were undeveloped. Warren owns certain deep rights below a portion of the Atlantic Rim CBM Project, which include an approximate 71,000 net acre position that is potentially prospective for hydrocarbon production from the Niobrara Shale and other deep formations. The Company sells its oil and natural gas production to various purchasers in the areas where the oil and natural gas is produced. Its drilling, completion, production, re-entry and land operations are conducted, managed and supervised for the company through Warren E&P, Inc., its wholly owned subsidiary. The Companys operations are subject to a wide variety of stringent federal, state and local laws and regulations governing the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, including discharge of materials into the environment or otherwise relating to environmental protection.
Executives
Tony Coelho director C/O PINNACLE GLOBAL GROUP, 5599 SAN FELIPE #1212, HOUSTON TX 77056
James A Watt officer: President & C.E.O. 410 17TH STREET, SUITE 1400, DENVER CO 80202
Marcus C Rowland director 920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
James M Mcconnell director C/O ESCO TECHNOLOGIES INC., 9900 A CLAYTON ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63124
Anthony L Coelho director 5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711

Warren Resources (Warren Resources) Headlines