Waterstone Financial (Waterstone Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Waterstone Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Waterstone Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Waterstone Financial (Waterstone Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Waterstone Financial Inc (NAS:WSBF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

47Z:Germany

Address

11200 West Plank Court, Wauwatosa, WI, USA, 53226

Website

http://www.wsbonline.com

Waterstone Financial Inc is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, It operates in two segments: Community Banking and Mortgage Banking. The community banking segment provides consumer and business banking products and services to customers, which include various types of loans, deposits, and personal investment services. The Mortgage Banking segment involves residential mortgage loans for the primary purpose of sale in the secondary market. The vast majority of its revenue comes from the community banking segment.

Executives

Douglas S Gordon	director, officer: CEO	C/O WAUWATOSA HOLDINGS INC, 11200 WEST PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226-3520
Ryan J Gordon	officer: EVP/Chief Credit Officer	11200 WEST PLANK CT., WAUWATOSA WI 53226
Michael L Hansen	director	C/O WAUWATOSA HOLDINGS, INC., 11200 WEST PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226-3250
Thomas E Dalum	director	C/O WAUWATOSA HOLDINGS, INC., 11200 WEST PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226-3250
William F Bruss	officer: COO, General Counsel	11200 W PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226
Ellen Syburg Bartel	director	730 PLANKINTON 3B, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Mark Raymond Gerke	officer: VP/Controller	5749 N. KENT AVENUE, WHITEFISH BAY WI 53217
Derek L Tyus	director	11200 WEST PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226
Jeffrey R Mcguiness	officer: Subsidary President	11200 WEST PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226
Patrick S Lawton	director	C/O WAUWATOSA HOLDINGS, INC., 11200 WEST PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226-3250
Eric J Egenhoefer	officer: Subsidiary President	11200 W PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226
Rebecca M Arndt	officer: Vice President	11200 W PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226
Stephen J Schmidt	director	C/O WAUWATOSA HOLDINGS, INC., 11200 WEST PLANK COURT, WAUWATOSA WI 53226-3250
Kevin P Gillespie	officer: Subsidary COO	626 SANCTUARY LANE, DELAFIELD WI 53018
Allan Robert Hosack	officer: CFO	W73 N397 GREYSTONE DRIVE, CEDARBURG WI 53012