W&T Offshore (W&T Offshore) Predictability Rank

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What is W&T Offshore Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

W&T Offshore Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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W&T Offshore (W&T Offshore) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » W&T Offshore Inc (NYSE:WTI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UWV:Germany

Address

5718 Westheimer Road, Suite 700, Houston, TX, USA, 77057-5745

Website

https://www.wtoffshore.com

W&T Offshore Inc is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The company's exploration operations are focused in the Gulf of Mexico, where it drills for oil and gas. The company engages in both deepwater drilling and shallow-water shelf drilling. W&T Offshore extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, which are then sold directly at the wellhead. Overall, crude oil accounts for the majority of the company's revenue, with natural gas accounting for a much smaller portion.

Executives

Sameer Parasnis	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	1700 PACIFIC AVENUE, SUITE 2900, DALLAS TX 75201
Nancy T Chang	director	101 WESTCOTT, SUITE 603, HOUSTON TX 77007
Jonathan Charles Curth	officer: See Remarks	5847 SAN FELIPE SUITE 3000, HOUSTON TX 77057
Hartman Bart P. Iii	officer: VP and CAO	5718 WESTHEIMER RD. SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77057
Conwill Daniel O. Iv	director	400 POYDRAS STREET, SUITE 3100, NEW ORLEANS LA 70130
Shahid Ghauri	officer: SEE REMARKS	NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77046
Virginia Boulet	director	909 POYDRAS ST SUITE 3600, NEW ORLEANS LA 70112
B Frank Stanley	director	NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77046
Tracy W Krohn	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO	EIGHT GREENWAY PLAZA, HOUSTON TX 77046
Stuart B Katz	director	520 MADISON AVE., NEW YORK NY 10022
William J Williford	officer: EVP and GM of Gulf of Mexico	NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77046
David M Bump	officer: See Remarks	NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77046
Sunghee Janet Yang	officer: SEE REMARKS	NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77046
Stephen L Schroeder	officer: SVP & Chief Technical Officer	C/O W&T OFFSHORE, INC., EIGHT GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 1330, HOUSTON TX 77046
John D Gibbons	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	P.O. BOX 500, SAN ANTONIO TX 78292-0500