Xtera Communications (Xtera Communications) Predictability Rank

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What is Xtera Communications Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xtera Communications Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Xtera Communications (Xtera Communications) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Xtera Communications Inc (OTCPK:XCOMQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 West Bethany Drive, Suite 100, Allen, TX, USA, 75013

Website

http://www.xtera.com

Xtera Communications Inc is a provider of optical transport solutions. It sells its optical transport solutions to telecommunications service providers, content service providers, enterprises and government entities across the world to support their deployments of long-haul terrestrial and submarine optical cable networks. Its optical networking solutions are designed to offer reach and capacity for intermediate sites between end-points of long-haul networks. Its primary service offerings include services, installation and deployment services, on-site hardware replacement services, system maintenance services, extended hardware warranty services and training across a spectrum of products within the optical networking industry. The company offers hardware, software and turnkey solutions.

Executives

Arch Venture Partners Vi Llc	10 percent owner	C/O ARCH VENTURE PARTNERS, 8725 W. HIGGINS RD. #290, CHICAGO IL 60631
Keith Crandell	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Robert Nelsen	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Clinton Bybee	director, 10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners Vi Lp	10 percent owner	C/O ARCH VENTURE PARTNERS, 8755 W. HIGGINS RD #1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Fund Vi Lp	10 percent owner	8755 W HIGGINS RD, STE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Peter J Barris	10 percent owner	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
New Enterprise Associates 9 L P	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea Partners 9 L P	10 percent owner	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Wellcome Trust Ltd	10 percent owner	215 EUSTON ROAD LONDON X0 NW1 2BE
John Mclaren	director	4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Barry A Fromberg	director	DEAN FOODS COMPANY, 2515 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Clifford H Higgerson	director	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 600, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Joseph R Chinnici	officer: EVP, CFO, Secretary	1201 WINTERSON ROAD, LINTHICUM MD 21090
Kevin J Martin	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831

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