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Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd (XKLS:7374) Predictability Rank


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What is Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd (XKLS:7374) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd (XKLS:7374) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XKLS:0064 XKLS:0039 XKLS:9008 XKLS:8044 XKLS:7017 XKLS:0167 XKLS:0122 XKLS:0213 XKLS:0099 XKLS:3107 LSE:REL TSX:TRI CTAS CPRT XAMS:WKL GPN XPAR:SW LSE:RTO ASX:BXB TSX:RBA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 5, Jalan Prof. Khoo Kay Kim, Lot 03-8, 8th Floor, Menara Symphony, Seksyen 13, Petaling Jaya, SGR, MYS, 46200
Website
https://www.tienwah.com
Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd is a print packaging company. It offers a packaging solution and produces mainly gravure and offset printed materials for tobacco packaging including cigarette packs, fast-moving consumer product packaging, and labels. Products of the group include flat unglued blanks, crash bottom or auto-lock cartons, labeled cartons, cartons with peelable labels/stickers, clamshells, and trays, UV coated cartons, glued skillet cartons, multiwall cartons comprising inner frames, cartons with CD inserts and barrier coated carton for grease and moisture resistance. The operating segment of the company is Printing and Trading and is managed on a worldwide basis and manufacturing facilities and sales offices are in Malaysia, Vietnam, Australia, United Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong.

Tien Wah Press Holdings Bhd (XKLS:7374) Headlines

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