Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (Zentalis Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (Zentalis Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:ZNTL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1359 Broadway, Suite 1710, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.zentalis.com

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing small molecule therapeutics targeting fundamental biological pathways of cancers. It uses a drug discovery engine, which it refers to as Integrated Discovery Engine, to identify targets and develop small molecule new chemical entities, or NCEs, with properties that it believes could result in potentially differentiated product profiles. It has two lead product candidates under pipeline: ZN-c5, for the treatment of advanced estrogen receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, or ER+/HER2-, advanced or metastatic breast cancer; and ZN-c3, for the treatment of advanced solid tumors as monotherapy and ovarian cancer.

Executives

Kimberly Blackwell	director	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, LLC, 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
David Michael Johnson	director	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, LLC, 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Carrie Brownstein	officer: Chief Medical Officer	500 W. 5TH ST., SUITE 1200, AUSTIN TX 78701
Kevin D. Bunker	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Melissa B, Epperly	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Jan Skvarka	director	C/O TRILLIUM THERAPEUTICS INC., 2488 DUNWIN DRIVE, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5L 1J9
Cam Gallagher	director	6042 CORNERSTONE CT. WEST, SUITE B, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Diana Hausman	director	C/O ONCOTHYREON INC., 2601 FOURTH AVE, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98121
Iris Roth	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Andrea Paul	officer: General Counsel	65 HAYDEN AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Anthony Y Sun	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O AISLING CAPITAL, 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Alexis Pinto	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, LLC, 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Dimitris Voliotis	officer: SVP, Clinical Development	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Enoch Kariuki	director	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, LLC, 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Viking Global Investors Lp	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901