Zosano Pharma (Zosano Pharma) Predictability Rank

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What is Zosano Pharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zosano Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Zosano Pharma Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zosano Pharma (Zosano Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Zosano Pharma Corp (OTCPK:ZSANQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

34790 Ardentech Court, Fremont, CA, USA, 94555

Website

https://www.zosanopharma.com

Zosano Pharma Corp is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on providing rapid systemic administration of therapeutics and other bioactive molecules to patients using the proprietary transdermal microneedle system. The system is designed to facilitate rapid drug absorption into the bloodstream, which can result in an improved pharmacokinetic profile compared to original dosage forms. The company's operating segment is to develop human pharmaceutical products. Its primary product candidate is Qtrypta (M207) which is the proprietary formulation of zolmitriptan delivered utilizing the system.

Executives

Christine Matthews	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ZOSANO PHAMA CORPORATION, 34790 ARDENTECH COURT, FREMONT CA 94555
Steven Lo	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94010
Donald J Kellerman	officer: VP, Clinical Dev & Med Affairs	INSPIRE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.,, 4222 EMPEROR BLVD., STE. 470, DURHAM NC 27703-8466
Elaine Yang	director	C/O ZOSANO PHARMA CORPORATION, 34790 ARDENTECH COURT, FREMONT CA 94555
Kenneth Greathouse	director	3260 WHIPPIE ROAD, UNION CITY CA 94587
Hayley Lewis	officer: See Remarks	C/O CARBYLAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3181 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Kathy M. Mcgee	director	C/O AVITA MEDICAL, 28159 AVENUE STANFORD, SUITE 220, VALENCIA CA 91355
Linda S Grais	director	86 ALEJANDRA AVE, ATHERTON CA 94027
Joseph P Hagan	director	3344 N. TORREY PINES COURT, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Kleanthis G Xanthopoulos	director	9050 CAMINO SANTA FE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John Peter Walker	director	126 ISABELLA AVE, ATHERTON CA 94027
Aisling Capital Partners Iv, Lp	10 percent owner	888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Aisling Capital Partners Iv Llc	10 percent owner	888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Aisling Capital Iv, Lp	10 percent owner	888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Andrew N Schiff	10 percent owner	PLANET ZANETT INC, 135 E 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022