API Technologies (API Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is API Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

API Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

API Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

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API Technologies (API Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » API Technologies Corp (NAS:ATNY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.apitech.com

API Technologies Corp was incorporated on February 2, 1999 under the laws of the State of Delaware under the name Rubicon Ventures Inc. On November 6, 2006, API changed its name to "API Nanotronics Corp," and subsequently changed its name to API Technologies Corp. on October 22, 2009. The Company through its three business segments-Systems, Subsystems & Components, Electronic Manufacturing Services and Secure Systems & Information Assurance. It designs, develops and manufactures systems, subsystems, RF and secure solutions, as well as provides electronics manufacturing and high-quality engineering services for technically demanding, high-reliability applications. Solutions areas include systems, subsystems and components which includes RF/microwave and microelectronics products, electromagnetics, power and systems solutions products, and sensors, Secure Systems and Information Assurance includes TEMPEST and emanation security, rugged communications products, encryption, and secure networking products and Electronics Manufacturing Services, which involves the production of circuit card assemblies, electromechanical assemblies, and box builds used in defense, industrial and commercial applications. The Company also operates several manufacturing facilities throughout North America, the United Kingdom, Mexico and China. Its customer base spans defense, aerospace, industrial, communications, medical, and government agencies, including the governments of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, & other countries. The Company is subject to federal contracting laws and regulations, including the U.S. Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) and the False Claims Act.

Executives

Robert Tavares	director, officer: President and CEO	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Eric F. Seeton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	103 HILL STREET, SHREWSBURY MA 01545
Melvin L Keating	director	18 DRIFTWOOD DRIVE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Steel Excel Inc.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steel Partners Holdings L.p.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sph Group Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sph Group Llc	10 percent owner	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steel Partners Holdings Gp Inc.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kenneth J Krieg	director	7111 XAVIER COURT, MCLEAN VA 22101
Matthew E Avril	director	C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, 1111 WESTCHESTER AVE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Claudio A Mannarino	officer: Sr VP & CFO	229 COLONNADE ROAD, NEPEAN A6 K2E 7K3
Senator Investment Group Lp	10 percent owner	510 MADISON AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Douglas Silverman	10 percent owner	C/O SENATOR INVESTMENT GROUP LP 510 MADISON AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Bel Lazar	officer: President & CEO	4705 S. APOPKA VINELAND ROAD, SUITE 201, ORLANDO FL 32819
Jason Dezwirek	other: Former Dir, Sec & 10% owner	2300 YONGE STREET, SUITE 1710, TORONTO A6 M4P 1E4

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