What is Aircastle Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Aircastle Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Aircastle (Aircastle) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
c/o Aircastle Advisor LLC, 201 Tresser Boulevard, Suite 400, Stamford, CT, USA, 06901
Aircastle Ltd is engaged in acquiring, leasing, and selling of commercial jet aircraft to airlines. The company has only single operating segment which is leasing, financing, selling, and managing commercial flight equipment.
Executives
| Michael J Cave |
director |
C/O ESTERLINE TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 500 108TH AVE NE, SUITE 1500, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
| Douglas A Hacker |
director |
P O BOX 66100-WHQLD, CHICAGO IL 60666 |
| Ronald W Allen |
director |
P O BOX 1734, ATLANTA GA 30301 |
| Ronald Merriman |
director |
6175 NANCY RIDGE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Charles W. Pollard |
director |
50 CRESCENT AVENUE, SECOND CLIFF, SCITUATE MA 02066 |
| Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board |
10 percent owner |
5650 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M2M 4H5 |
| Peter V Ueberroth |
director |
CONTRARIAN GROUP INC, 1071 CAMELBACK ST, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660 |
| Wesley R Edens |
director |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Fig Llc |
10 percent owner |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Fortress Investment Group Llc |
10 percent owner |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Fortress Operating Entity I Lp |
10 percent owner |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Fig Corp. |
10 percent owner |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Adams Joseph P. Jr. |
director |
C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Mark S Zeidman |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1661 WORTHINGTON ROAD, SUITE 100, W PALM BEACH FL 33409 |
| Fortress Investment Holdings Llc |
10 percent owner |
1251 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
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