Craft Brew Alliance (Craft Brew Alliance) Predictability Rank

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What is Craft Brew Alliance Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Craft Brew Alliance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Craft Brew Alliance (Craft Brew Alliance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Craft Brew Alliance Inc (NAS:BREW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

929 North Russell Street, Portland, OR, USA, 97227-1733

Website

http://www.craftbrew.com

Craft Brew Alliance Inc is a craft brewing company and a leader in brewing, and branding American craft beers. The company's brand portfolio consists of Redhook Brewery, Widmer Brothers Brewing, Kona Brewing Company, Omission Beer, Square Mile Cider Company, and Resignation Brewery. The crafts beers are brewed and packed in the location such as Portland, Oregon the Seattle suburb of Woodinville, Washington; Portsmouth, New Hampshire, and Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. Its segments are Beer Related operations and Brewpubs operations. The majority of the revenue is derived from brewing, and domestic and international sales, of craft beers and ciders.

Executives

Matthew Edgar Gilbertson	director	125 WEST 24TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10011
Timothy P Boyle	director	14375 NW SCIENCE PARK DRIVE, PORTLAND OR 97229
Christine Nicol Perich	officer: Chief Financial & Strategy Off	1413 LINDEN LAKE ROAD FORT COLLINS CO 80524
Jacqueline S Woodward	director	180 LINDEN ROAD PINEHURST NC 28374
Edwin A Smith	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Nickolas A Mills	director	ONE BUSCH PLACE ST. LOUIS MO 63118
Derek Y Hahm	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
J Scott Mennen	officer: Chief Operating Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Kenneth C Kunze	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Andrew J. Thomas	officer: Chief Executive Officer	929 N. RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Marc J Cramer	director	P.O. BOX 4525 PORTLAND OR 97208
Kevin R Kelly	director	929 NORTH RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
David R Lord	director	929 N RUSSELL STREET PORTLAND OR 97227
Paul D Davis	director	4211 WILLIAMS AVENUE NORTH RENTON WA 98056
Vieira Joao Paulo Falcao	director	125 WEST 24TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10011