Credit Acceptance (Credit Acceptance) Predictability Rank

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What is Credit Acceptance Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Credit Acceptance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Credit Acceptance Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Credit Acceptance (Credit Acceptance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Credit Acceptance Corp (NAS:CACC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CRDA34:Brazil

Address

25505 W. Twelve Mile Road, Southfield, MI, USA, 48034-8339

Website

https://www.creditacceptance.com

Credit Acceptance Corp is a consumer finance company that specializes in automobile loans. These loans are offered through a U.S. nationwide network of automobile dealers that benefit from sales of vehicles to consumers who could otherwise not obtain financing. The company also benefits from repeat and referral sales, and from sales to customers responding to advertisements for financing, but qualify for traditional financing. The company derives its revenue from finance charges, premiums earned on the reinsurance of vehicle service contracts, and other fees. Of these, financing charges, including servicing fees, are by far the largest source of revenue.

Executives

Wendy A Rummler	officer: Senior VP, Human Resources	25505 WEST TWELVE MILE ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Douglas W Busk	officer: Sr. Vice President & Treasurer	25505 WEST TWELVE MILE ROAD, SOUTH FIELD MI 48034
Nicholas J Elliott	officer: Chief Alignment Officer	25505 WEST TWELVE MILE RD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Arthur L Smith	officer: Chief Analytics Officer	25505 W 12 MILE ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Sean Edward Quinn	director	C/O CIMPRESS PLC, 275 WYMAN STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Thomas W Smith	10 percent owner, other: Member of Section 13(d) Group	2200 BUTTS ROAD, SUITE 320, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Scott J Vassalluzzo	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of Section 13(d) Group	2200 BUTTS ROAD, SUITE 320, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Donald A. Foss Irrevocable Trust Dated August 14, 2022	10 percent owner	39395 W. TWELVE MILE ROAD, SUITE 200, FARMINGTON HILLS MI 48331
Daniel A. Ulatowski	officer: Chief Sales Officer	25505 W 12 MILE ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Andrew K Rostami	officer: Chief Mktg and Product Officer	25505 WEST TWELVE MILE ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Prescott General Partners Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of Section 13(d) Group	2200 BUTTS ROAD, SUITE 320, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ravi Mohan Valiyaveettil	officer: Chief Technology Officer	25505 WEST TWELVE MILE RD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Thomas N Tryforos	director	323 RAILROAD AVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Kenneth Booth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	25505 WEST TWELVE MILE ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Donald A Foss	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	29777 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SUITE 2611, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034