Century Aluminum Co (Century Aluminum Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Century Aluminum Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Century Aluminum Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Century Aluminum Co (Century Aluminum Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Century Aluminum Co (NAS:CENX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EY3:Germany

Address

One South Wacker Drive, Suite 1000, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.centuryaluminum.com

Century Aluminum Co produces primary aluminum standard grade and value-added products. The firm operates smelter facilities in the United States and Iceland. The majority of revenue is generated from Glencore, which agreed to purchase nearly all of Century Aluminum's North American production. Century purchases nearly all of its alumina from Glencore. The company produces high purity aluminum, standard grade aluminum sow and tee bars, and value-added billet and foundry products. Century also owns a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands.

Executives

Peter A Trpkovski	officer: SVP, Finance and Treasurer	CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY, 1 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jesse E Gary	director, officer: President and CEO	2511 GARDEN ROAD, BUILDING A, SUITE 200, MONTEREY CA 93940
Robert F Hoffman	officer: See Remarks	1 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Tamla A Olivier	director	CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY, 1 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Matt Aboud	officer: SVP, Strategy & Business Dev't	CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY, 1 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Ocorian Ltd	10 percent owner	26 NEW STREET, ST HELIER Y9 JE2 3RA
Ryfold Ltd	10 percent owner	26 NEW STREET, ST HELIER Y9 JE2 3RA
Givolon Ltd	10 percent owner	26 NEW STREET, ST HELIER Y9 JE2 3RA
Ryfold Trust	10 percent owner	ESPLANADE 13-14, ST HELIER Y9 JE1 1EE
Gerald C Bialek	officer: Chief Financial Officer	701 LIMA AVENUE, FINDLAY OH 45840
Andrew G Michelmore	director	LEVEL 23/28 FRESHWATER PLACE, P.O. BOX 19421, SOUTHBANK VICTORIA C3 3006
Jarl Berntzen	director	CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY, 2511 GARDEN ROAD, BLDG A, SUITE 200, MONTEREY CA 93940
Errol Glasser	director	505 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jennifer Mary Bush	director	CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY, 1 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
John Dezee	officer: EVP and General Counsel	1 S WACKER DR, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606