CYS Investments (CYS Investments) Predictability Rank

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What is CYS Investments Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CYS Investments Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CYS Investments (CYS Investments) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » CYS Investments Inc (NYSE:CYS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cysinv.com

CYS Investments Inc is a specialty finance company with the objective of risk-adjusted investment income. The company generates its revenue primarily from the difference between the interest income earned on the investment portfolio and the cost of the company's borrowings and hedging activities. The company's investments include residential mortgage pass-through securities, for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a government agency or government-sponsored entity; collateralised mortgage obligations issued by a government agency or government-sponsored entity; U.S. Treasuries; and debt securities issued by a government agency or a government-sponsored entity that is not backed by collateral.

Executives

Redlingshafer Raymond A Jr	director	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Dale Anne Reiss	director	589 KINZIE ISLAND COURT, SANIBEL FL 33957
James A Stern	director	C/O OHA - 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Kevin E Grant	director, officer: Chairman, CEO, CIO, President	500 TOTTEN POND ROAD, 6TH FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Thomas A Rosenbloom	officer: EVP, GC, and Secretary	500 TOTTEN POND ROAD, 6TH FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Richard E Cleary	officer: COO and Assistant Secretary	500 TOTTEN POND ROAD, 6TH FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Tanya S Beder	director	500 TOTTEN POND ROAD, 6TH FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jack Decicco	officer: CFO and Treasurer	500 TOTTEN POND ROAD, 6TH FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Karen Hammond	director	1601 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Stephen P. Jonas	director	25 BEAVER PLACE, BOSTON MA 02108
David A Tyson	director	CITIGROUP ASSET MANAGEMENT, 300 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE 4TH FL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Jeffrey Hughes	director	811 HANSEN WAY, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Frances Spark	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O AGNC INVESTMENT CORP., 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Douglas Ii Crocker	director	C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 515 S. FLOWER ST., 44TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Ryan Randall Brenneman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EYEGATE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 271 WAVERLEY OAKS ROAD, SUITE 108, WALTHAM MA 02452