Hormel Foods (Hormel Foods) Predictability Rank

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What is Hormel Foods Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hormel Foods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hormel Foods (Hormel Foods) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Hormel Foods Corp (NYSE:HRL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HRL:Mexico HO7:Germany HO7:Germany H1RL34:Brazil HRL:Austria

Address

1 Hormel Place, Austin, MN, USA, 55912-3680

Website

https://www.hormelfoods.com

Historically meat-focused, Hormel Foods broadened its lineup to include other protein offerings and become a branded food company. The firm sells its wares through multiple channels, including U.S. retail (64% of fiscal 2023 sales), U.S. food service (30%), and international (6%). By product, 53% of fiscal 2022 sales were from perishable food, 27% from shelf-stable, 17% from poultry, and 3% from other products. Major brands include Hormel, Spam, Jennie-O, Columbus, Applegate, Planters, and Skippy. Many of these hold the number one or two market share in their respective categories.

Executives

Susan K Nestegard	director	AMERICAN CAPITAL, LTD., 2 BETHESDA METRO, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Kevin L Myers	officer: Vice President	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
Deanna T Brady	officer: Vice President	1 HORMEL STREET, AUSTIN MN 55912
Elsa A Murano	director	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912-3680
Pierre M Lilly	officer: SVP & Chief Compliance Officer	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
Mark J Ourada	officer: Group Vice President	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
Mark A Coffey	officer: Vice President	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
Prado Becerra Jose Luis	director	50 S. LASALLE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60603
Ray G Young	director	77 WEST WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Michael Paul Zechmeister	director	C/O UNITED NATURAL FOODS, INC., 313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908
Patrick J Connor	officer: Vice President	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
James P Snee	officer: Vice President	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
Katherine M Losness-larson	officer: Senior Vice President	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
Florence Makope	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	1 HORMEL PLACE, AUSTIN MN 55912
Christopher J. Policinski	director	4001 LEXINGTON AVENUE N., ARDEN HILLS MN 55126