Kemper (Kemper) Predictability Rank

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What is Kemper Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kemper Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kemper Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Kemper (Kemper) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Kemper Corp (NYSE:KMPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 East Randolph Street, Suite 3300, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601

Website

https://www.kemper.com

Kemper Corp is a diversified insurance company that provides services in property and casualty insurance, along with life and health insurance. The company's property and casualty segment offers personal and commercial lines for home and automotive products. It conducts its operations through three operating segments: Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance, Preferred Property & Casualty Insurance, and Life & Health Insurance.

Executives

Alberto J Paracchini	director	180 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Lacher Joseph P Jr	director, officer: President and CEO	KEMPER CORPORATION, 200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
George N Cochran	director	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Stuart B. Parker	director	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Bradley T Camden	officer: SVP and Interim CFO	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Christopher Wade Flint	officer: EVP, President, Kemper Life	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Susan D Whiting	director	C/O ALLIANT ENERGY CORPORATION, PO BOX 14720, MADISON WI 53708-0720
Matthew A Hunton	other: Sr. Vice President	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Robert Joseph Joyce	director	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
James Allen Alexander	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	200 E. RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jason N Gorevic	director
Timmy L Stonehocker	other: Sr. Vice President	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Anastasios Omiridis	officer: SVP, Deputy CFO &, Principal Accounting Officer	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
John Michael Boschelli	officer: Treasurer	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Mark A. Green	officer: President, Life & Health Div.	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601