Origin Materials (Origin Materials) Predictability Rank

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What is Origin Materials Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Origin Materials Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Origin Materials (Origin Materials) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Origin Materials Inc (NAS:ORGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5ER:Germany 5ER:Germany

Address

930 Riverside Parkway, Suite 10, West Sacramento, CA, USA, 95605

Website

https://www.originmaterials.com

Origin Materials Inc is a carbon-negative materials company. The platform turns the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while eliminating the need for fossil resources and capturing carbon in the process.

Executives

John Bissell	director, officer: President, Co-CEO and Director	C/O ORIGIN MATERIALS, INC., 930 RIVERSIDE PKWY #10, WEST SACRAMENTO CA 95605
Joshua C. Lee	officer: General Counsel	C/O ORIGIN MATERIALS, INC., 930 RIVERSIDE PKWY #10, WEST SACRAMENTO CA 95605
Richard J. Riley	director, officer: Co-CEO and Director	C/O ORIGIN MATERIALS, INC., 930 RIVERSIDE PKWY #10, WEST SACRAMENTO CA 95605
Matthew T Plavan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THERMOGENESIS CORP., 2711 CITRUS ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
R Tony Tripeny	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
Pamela Haley	officer: Interim CFO	202 COUSTEAU PLACE, DAVIS CA 95618
Karen A Richardson	director
James C. Stephanou	director	930 RIVERSIDE PKWY SUITE 10, WEST SACRAMENTO CA 95605
Craig A Rogerson	director	1313 N MARKET ST, WILMINGTON DE 19894
Boon Sim	director, 10 percent owner	C/O VANTIV, INC., 8500 GOVERNORS HILL DRIVE, CINCINNATI OH 45249
Nathan S. Whaley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ORIGIN MATERIALS, INC., 930 RIVERSIDE PKWY #10, WEST SACRAMENTO CA 95605
Heidenmark Cook Pia Johanna	director	PRASTAV 672, VIKEN V7 263 61
Stephen Galowitz	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O ORIGIN MATERIALS, INC., 3 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, SUITE 2215, NEW YORK NY 10019
Charles Drucker	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	38 FOUNTAIN SQUARE PLAZA, MD 10AT76, CINCINNATI OH 45263
Benno O Dorer	director	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612