Orrstown Financial Services (Orrstown Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Orrstown Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Orrstown Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Orrstown Financial Services (Orrstown Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Orrstown Financial Services Inc (NAS:ORRF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

77 East King Street, P.O. Box 250, Shippensburg, PA, USA, 17257

Website

https://www.orrstown.com

Orrstown Financial Services Inc is a holding company engaged in commercial banking and trust business, this involves accepting demand, time and savings deposits, and granting loans. It is also engaged in lending services for commercial, residential, commercial mortgages, construction, municipal, and various forms of consumer lending. Deposit services include checking, savings, time, and money market deposits. It also provides investment and brokerage services through its Financial Advisors division. The company operates in a significant segment - Community Banking.

Executives

Floyd E Stoner	director	3402 HOLLY STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22305-1900
Thomas D Longenecker	director	77 EAST KING STREET, P. O. BOX 250, SHIPPENSBURG PA 17257
Sean Mulcahy	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	77 EAST KING STREET, SHIPPENSBURG PA 17257
Robert G Coradi	officer: Chief Risk Officer	1009 STONECROFT DRIVE, HANOVER PA 17331
Matthew Dyckman	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O ORRSTOWN FINANCIAL SERVICES INC., 77 EAST KING STREET, P.O. BOX 250, SHIPPENSBERG PA 17257
Christopher D Holt	officer: Executive Vice President	77 EAST KING STREET, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17257
Neelesh Kalani	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	SUN BANCORP, INC., 226 LANDIS AVENUE, VINELAND PA 19087
Quinn Thomas R Jr	officer: President/CEO	61 ASHTON STREET, CARLISLE PA 17013
David Todd Hornberger	officer: Executive Vice President	77 EAST KING STREET, SHIPPENSBURG PA 17257
Jeffrey S Gayman	officer: Senior Vice President	70 PINE CREEK DRIVE, CARLISLE PA 17013
Philip E Fague	officer: Executive Vice President	9754 FOREST RIDGE ROAD, SHIPPENSBURG PA 17257
Meera R Modi	director	4750 LINDLE ROAD, HARRISBURG PA 17111
Cindy Jeannette Joiner	director	77 EAST KING STREET, P O BOX 250, SHIPPENSBURG PA 17257
Joel R Zullinger	director	1441 EDGAR AVE, CHAMBERSBURGH PA 17201
Andrea L Pugh	director	7970 EBENEZER ROAD, ORRSTOWN PA 17244