Panera Bread Co (Panera Bread Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Panera Bread Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Panera Bread Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Panera Bread Co (Panera Bread Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Panera Bread Co (NAS:PNRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.panerabread.com

Panera Bread Co Inc owns and franchises bakery cum cafes various locations in the United States and Canada. These cafes are operated under the brand's names Panera Bread, Saint Louis Bread Co., and Paradise Bakery & CafÃ©. Their menu offerings include baked goods, sandwiches, soups, pasta dishes, salads, and cafe beverages. They also provide catering services by the Panera brand that offer breakfast assortments, sandwiches, salads, soups, pasta dishes, drinks, and bakery items. Segments through which business is conducted include company Bakery-Cafe Operations segment, Franchise Operations segment, and Fresh Dough and Other Product Operations segment. Revenues are generated from bakery cum cafe sales, royalties and fees from franchises, and fresh dough and other product sales.

Executives

Diane Hessan	director	2 BATTERY WHARF, #2510, BOSTON MA 02109
James D White	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 202-400-2920 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 5, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Thomas E Lynch	director	382 GREENWICH AVE, SUITE ONE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Andrew H Madsen	officer: President	520 ZANG ST., UNIT D, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Louis Dipietro	officer: SVP, General Counsel	35 PARK STREET, NORFOLK MA 02056
Jeffrey W Kip	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	3630 SOUTH GEYER ROAD, SUITE 100, ST LOUIS MO 63127
Patricia Gray	officer: SVP, Chief Legal Officer	C/O AMERICAN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING INC, 829 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BILLERICA MA 01821
Yanofsky Neal	officer: President	6710 CLAYTON ROAD RICHMOND HEIGHTS MO 63117