Primerica (Primerica) Predictability Rank

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What is Primerica Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Primerica Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Primerica (Primerica) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Primerica Inc (NYSE:PRI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PI7:Germany

Address

1 Primerica Parkway, Duluth, GA, USA, 30099

Website

https://www.primerica.com

Primerica Inc is a provider of financial services to middle-income households in the United States and Canada. The company offers life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, and other financial products, distributed primarily on behalf of third parties. Primerica has three main subsidiaries: Primerica Financial Services, a marketing company; Primerica Life Insurance Company, a principal life insurance underwriting entity; and PFS Investments, which offers investment and savings products, brokerage services, and registered investment advisory. It has four segments Term Life Insurance; Investment and Savings Products; Senior Health; and Corporate and Other Distributed Products. Geogriphically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the US.

Executives

Alison S. Rand	officer: Executive VP and CFO	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Glenn J. Williams	officer: President	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Tracy Xiangyan Tan	officer: Executive VP, Finance	5168 LONG ISLAND DR NW, ATLANTA GA 30327
Peter W. Schneider	officer: Exec. VP and General Counsel	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Addison John A. Jr.	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Gregory C. Pitts	officer: Executive VP and COO	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
P George Benson	director	NUTRITION 21, INC., 4 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Amber Lynne Cottle	director	3921 MILITARY ROAD NW, WASHINGTON DC 20015
Joel M. Babbit	director	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Sanjeev Dheer	director	22 MURRAY HILL ROAD, SCARSDALE NY 10583
Barbara A. Yastine	director	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
William A. Kelly	officer: President of Subsidiary	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Robert F Mccullough	director	1170 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 300309
C Saxby Chambliss	director	ONE ATLANTIC CENTER, 1201 WEST PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 2800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Jeffrey S. Fendler	officer: President of Subsidiary	3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099