West Bancorp (West Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is West Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

West Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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West Bancorp (West Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » West Bancorp Inc (NAS:WTBA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WB3:Germany

Address

1601 22nd Street, West Des Moines, IA, USA, 50266

Website

https://www.westbankstrong.com

West Bancorp Inc is a United States-based company that offers a full range of deposit services, including checking, savings, and money market accounts and time certificates of deposit. West Bank also offers online banking, mobile banking, and treasury management services, which help to meet the banking needs of its customers. Treasury management services offered to business customers include cash management, client-generated automated clearing house transactions, remote deposit, and fraud protection services. Also offered are merchant credit card processing and corporate credit cards. The bank operates only in the United States of America region.

Executives

David D Nelson	director, officer: CEO & PRESIDENT	1601 22ND STREET, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Bradley P Peters	officer: Executive Vice President	4808 SYCAMORE COURT, EAGAN MN 55123
Sean Patrick Mcmurray	director	13230 ASHLEAF DR, CLIVE IA 50325
George D Milligan	director	118 2ND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Rosemary Parson	director	3608 129TH STREET, URBANDALE IA 50322
Patrick J Donovan	director	445 MINNESOTA ST STE 2000, ST PAUL MN 55101
Douglas R Gulling	director, officer: EVP & CFO	9620 HAMMONTREE DRIVE, DES MOINES IA 50322
Lisa J Elming	director	6826 NW 88TH CT, JOHNSTON IA 50131
David R Milligan	director, officer: CEO & PRESIDENT	10165 LINCOLN AVENUE, DES MOINES IA 50325
Steven T Schuler	director	12917 WILDEN CIRCLE, URBANDALE IA 50323
Michael J Gerdin	director	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Therese M Vaughan	director	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, THE CHARTIS BUILDING / 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Jane M Funk	officer: SVP / Controller	C/O NORTH CENTRAL BANCSHARES INC, 825 CENTRAL AVENUE, FORT DODGE IA 50501
Marie I Roberts	officer: SVP, CONTROLLER AND CAC	13050 WALNUT RIDGE CIRCLE, CLIVE IA 50325
Harlee Olafson	officer: CHIEF RISK OFFICER	1601 22ND STREET, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266