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Mechel PAO (Mechel PAO) Altman Z2-Score : -5.21 (As of May. 28, 2024)


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What is Mechel PAO Altman Z2-Score?

Altman Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score, is used to predict the likelihood that a non-manufacturing company (excluding property/financial company) will face bankruptcy within a two-year period.

Warning Sign:

Mechel PAO has a Altman Z2-Score of -5.21, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z2-Score <= 1.1, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score >= 2.6, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score is between 1.1 and 2.6, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MTLp' s Altman Z2-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -17.65   Med: -10.72   Max: -0.99
Current: -5.37

During the past 13 years, Mechel PAO's highest Altman Z2-Score was -0.99. The lowest was -17.65. And the median was -10.72.


Mechel PAO Altman Z2-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Mechel PAO Altman Z2-Score Chart

Mechel PAO Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Altman Z2-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -10.72 -10.35 -10.47 -16.87 -6.82

Mechel PAO Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Jun22 Jun23
Altman Z2-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -12.00 -9.08 -6.82 - -5.37

Competitive Comparison of Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score

For the Steel subindustry, Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z2-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score Distribution in the Steel Industry

For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score falls into.



Mechel PAO Altman Z2-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies.

Mechel PAO's Altman Z2-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=6.56*X1+3.26*X2+6.72*X3+1.05*X4_2
=6.56*-0.7565+3.26*-0.493+6.72*0.2481+1.05*-0.2905
=-5.21

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z2-Score when X4_2 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Jun. 2023:
Total Assets was $3,330 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,514 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $4,033 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $-1,642 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was 0 + 0 + 346.926 + 335.505 = $682 Mil.
Interest Expense was 0 + 0 + -59.863 + -83.999 = $-144 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $4,375 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(1513.535 - 4032.96)/3330.155
=-0.7565

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=-1641.765/3330.155
=-0.493

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(682.431 - -143.862)/3330.155
=0.2481

X4_2=Net Worth/Total Liabilities
=(Total Stockholders Equity - Preferred Stock)/Total Liabilities
=(-1260.513 - 10.35)/4375.14
=-0.2905

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.1 < Grey Zones < 2.6 - Safe Zones

Mechel PAO has a Altman Z2-Score of -5.21 indicating it is in Distress Zones.


Mechel PAO  (NYSE:MTLp) Altman Z2-Score Explanation

The original Z-Score model was based on publicly traded manufacturing companies while the Z2-Score, also known as Z"-score can be used for any type of company excluding property/financial companies. Both Z-Score and Z2-Score describes the financial health of a company, and its likelihood of financial distress.

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4_2, Net Worth (Total Stockholders Equity - Preferred Stock)/Total Liabilities (NW/TL): it compares a company’s stock net worth with its total liabilities and can be used to assess the extent of its reliance on debt.

Read more about Altman Z2-Score, the original research on Z-Score and the additional research on Z2-Score.


Be Aware

Altman Z2-Score does not apply to financial companies.


Mechel PAO Altman Z2-Score Related Terms

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Mechel PAO (Mechel PAO) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Krasnoarmeyskaya Street 1, Moscow, RUS, 125167
Mechel PAO is a vertically integrated group operating into three industrial segments Mining, Steel and Power. The mining segment produces metallurgical coal (coking coal, PCI and anthracite), steam coal, iron ore and iron ore concentrate, coke and chemical products. The segment consists of its coal, iron ore and coke production facilities in Russia. The steel segment produces and sells semi-finished steel products, long products of a wide range of steel grades, carbon and stainless flat steel products and high value-added metal products, including wire products, stampings and forgings, structural shapes, beams and rails. The power segment sells electricity and capacity to the wholesale market. The majority of the revenue is derived from the Steel segment.