What is EXCO Resources Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, EXCO Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of EXCO Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, EXCO Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
EXCO Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, EXCO Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where EXCO Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
EXCO Resources Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
EXCO Resources (EXCO Resources) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12377 Merit Drive, Suite 1700, Dallas, TX, USA, 75251
EXCO Resources Inc is an oil and gas exploration and production company. Its operations include the exploration, acquisition, development, and production of oil and gas reserves. These activities take place in the company's onshore oilfields within the United States, and focus on shale resource plays. Its fields are located in key oil and gas areas, including Texas, Louisiana, and the Appalachian region. The Louisiana and Texas operations are the most productive fields. The majority of the company's revenue is generated from natural gas, with a smaller portion coming from oil.
Executives
| Wl Ross & Co Llc |
10 percent owner |
2001 ROSS AVENUE, SUITE 3400, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Wlr Master Co-investment Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Wlr Recovery Associates Iv Llc |
10 percent owner |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Invesco Wlr Iv Associates Llc |
10 percent owner |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Wlr Iv Parallel Esc Lp |
10 percent owner |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Invesco Private Capital, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| 810679 Ontario Ltd |
10 percent owner |
95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST SUITE 800, TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA A6 00000 |
| Second 1109 Holdco Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
95 WELLINGTON ST W STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7 |
| Ffhl Group Ltd |
10 percent owner |
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, 4405 CINNERCE CIYRT WEST, TORONTO ONTARIO A6 00000 |
| Sixty Two Investment Co Ltd |
10 percent owner |
1600 CATHEDRAL PLACE, 925 W GEORGIA ST, VANCOUVER BC CANADA A1 V6C3L3 |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd/ Can |
10 percent owner |
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD, 95 WELLINGTON ST WEST STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7 |
| Watsa V Prem Et Al |
10 percent owner |
95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST, SUITE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7 |
| Wilder John C Jr |
director |
300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1860, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Oaktree Value Opportunities Fund Holdings, L.p. |
director, 10 percent owner |
333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071 |
| Ocm Principal Opportunities Fund Iii Gp, L.p. |
director, 10 percent owner |
333 S. GRAND AVE., 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071 |
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