EXCO Resources (EXCO Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is EXCO Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EXCO Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

EXCO Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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EXCO Resources (EXCO Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » EXCO Resources Inc (OTCPK:EXCE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12377 Merit Drive, Suite 1700, Dallas, TX, USA, 75251

Website

http://www.excoresources.com

EXCO Resources Inc is an oil and gas exploration and production company. Its operations include the exploration, acquisition, development, and production of oil and gas reserves. These activities take place in the company's onshore oilfields within the United States, and focus on shale resource plays. Its fields are located in key oil and gas areas, including Texas, Louisiana, and the Appalachian region. The Louisiana and Texas operations are the most productive fields. The majority of the company's revenue is generated from natural gas, with a smaller portion coming from oil.

Executives

Wl Ross & Co Llc	10 percent owner	2001 ROSS AVENUE, SUITE 3400, DALLAS TX 75201
Wlr Master Co-investment Gp Llc	10 percent owner	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Wlr Recovery Associates Iv Llc	10 percent owner	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Invesco Wlr Iv Associates Llc	10 percent owner	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Wlr Iv Parallel Esc Lp	10 percent owner	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Invesco Private Capital, Inc.	10 percent owner	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
810679 Ontario Ltd	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST SUITE 800, TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA A6 00000
Second 1109 Holdco Ltd.	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON ST W STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Ffhl Group Ltd	10 percent owner	FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, 4405 CINNERCE CIYRT WEST, TORONTO ONTARIO A6 00000
Sixty Two Investment Co Ltd	10 percent owner	1600 CATHEDRAL PLACE, 925 W GEORGIA ST, VANCOUVER BC CANADA A1 V6C3L3
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd/ Can	10 percent owner	FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD, 95 WELLINGTON ST WEST STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Watsa V Prem Et Al	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST, SUITE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Wilder John C Jr	director	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1860, DALLAS TX 75201
Oaktree Value Opportunities Fund Holdings, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Ocm Principal Opportunities Fund Iii Gp, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	333 S. GRAND AVE., 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071