What is AVANIR Pharmaceuticals Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, AVANIR Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of AVANIR Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic subindustry, AVANIR Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
AVANIR Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry
For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, AVANIR Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where AVANIR Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
AVANIR Pharmaceuticals Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
AVANIR Pharmaceuticals (FRA:AV2B) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Avanir Pharmaceuticals was incorporated in California in August 1988 and was reincorporated in Delaware in March 2009. The Company is a biopharmaceutical company focused on acquiring, developing and commercializing novel therapeutic products for the treatment of central nervous system disorders. The Company commenced promotion of NUEDEXTA in the United States in February 2011. The Company is also studying AVP-923 for use in different types of neuropathic pain. NUEDEXTA is the first and only FDA-approved treatment for pseudobulbar affect. NUEDEXTA is an combination of two components: dextromethorphan hydrobromide, the ingredient that is harmacologically active in the central nervous system, and quinidine sulfate, a metabolic inhibitor enabling dextromethorphan to reach therapeutic plasma concentrations. The Company currently markets NUEDEXTA to approximately 10,000 physicians and other healthcare providers who specialize in psychiatry, neurology or geriatric medicine and practice in outpatient or long-term care settings. NUEDEXTA may face competition from several products: Antidepressants, including Prozac, Celexa, Zoloft, Paxil, Elavil and Pamelor and others; Atypical antipsychotic agents, including Zyprexa, Risperdal, Seroquel, Abilify, Geodon and others; and Miscellaneous agents, including Symmetrel, Lithium and others. The Company is subject to regulation under the Occupational Safety and Health Act, the Environmental Protection Act, the Toxic Substance Control Act, the Export Control Act and other present and future laws of general application.
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