What is Move Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Move's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Move's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Internet Content & Information subindustry, Move's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Move's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Interactive Media Industry
For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, Move's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Move's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Move Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Move (FRA:HMZN) Business Description
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Move, Inc. was incorporated in the State of Delaware in 1993 under the name of InfoTouch Corporation. The Company and its subsidiaries operate an online network of websites for real estate information marketplace connecting consumers with the information and the expertise they need to make informed home buying, selling, financing and renting decisions. It provides consumers with a powerful combination of breadth, depth and accuracy of information about homes for sale, new construction, homes for rent, multi-family rental properties, senior living communities, home financing, home improvement and moving resources. Its flagship consumer web sites are REALTOR.com, Move.com and Moving.comTM. The Company also supplies management software and marketing services for real estate agents and brokers through its Top Producer and TigerLead businesses. The Company categorizes its products and services into two groups: Consumer Advertising and Software and Services. The Company's Consumer Advertising products are focused on providing real estate consumers with the information, tools and professional expertise they need to make informed home buying, selling, financing and renting decisions through its operation of realtor.com and other consumer-facing web sites. Realtor.com is the official web site of the National Association of Realtors (the "NAR"), the largest trade association in the U.S. that represents residential and commercial real estate professionals, including brokers, agents, property managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in all aspects of the real estate industry. The Company's Software and Services products are committed to delivering valuable connections to real estate professionals by providing them with advertising systems, productivity and management tools, and reporting with the goal of helping to make them more successful. It separately operates several other websites providing single family and multi-family rental listings, senior housing and moving-related content and services to its consumer audience. Realtor.com competes in a highly fragmented and highly complex local real estate marketplace. Competition within realtor.com falls into two general categories: (i) online real estate media companies; and (ii) offline advertising offerings, including newspaper classifieds, direct mail and other traditional offline media. The Company has nine patents issued in the U.S.
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