Move (FRA:HMZN) Predictability Rank

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What is Move Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Move Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Move (FRA:HMZN) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Move Inc (FRA:HMZN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Website

http://www.move.com

Move, Inc. was incorporated in the State of Delaware in 1993 under the name of InfoTouch Corporation. The Company and its subsidiaries operate an online network of websites for real estate information marketplace connecting consumers with the information and the expertise they need to make informed home buying, selling, financing and renting decisions. It provides consumers with a powerful combination of breadth, depth and accuracy of information about homes for sale, new construction, homes for rent, multi-family rental properties, senior living communities, home financing, home improvement and moving resources. Its flagship consumer web sites are REALTOR.com, Move.com and Moving.comTM. The Company also supplies management software and marketing services for real estate agents and brokers through its Top Producer and TigerLead businesses. The Company categorizes its products and services into two groups: Consumer Advertising and Software and Services. The Company's Consumer Advertising products are focused on providing real estate consumers with the information, tools and professional expertise they need to make informed home buying, selling, financing and renting decisions through its operation of realtor.com and other consumer-facing web sites. Realtor.com is the official web site of the National Association of Realtors (the "NAR"), the largest trade association in the U.S. that represents residential and commercial real estate professionals, including brokers, agents, property managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in all aspects of the real estate industry. The Company's Software and Services products are committed to delivering valuable connections to real estate professionals by providing them with advertising systems, productivity and management tools, and reporting with the goal of helping to make them more successful. It separately operates several other websites providing single family and multi-family rental listings, senior housing and moving-related content and services to its consumer audience. Realtor.com competes in a highly fragmented and highly complex local real estate marketplace. Competition within realtor.com falls into two general categories: (i) online real estate media companies; and (ii) offline advertising offerings, including newspaper classifieds, direct mail and other traditional offline media. The Company has nine patents issued in the U.S.

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