What is Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Auto Parts subindustry, Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack (FRA:PBS) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack began operations in 1921. The Company together with its subsidiaries offers automotive service, tires, parts and accessories. The Company operates in the U.S. automotive aftermarket, which has two general lines of business: the Service business, commonly known as Do-It-For-Me, or "DIFM" (service labor, installed merchandise and tires) and the Retail business, commonly known as Do-It-Yourself, or "DIY" (retail merchandise) and commercial. The Company's store format is the Supercenter, which serves both "DIFM" and "DIY" customers with quality service offerings and merchandise. The Company is complementing the existing Supercenter store base with Service & Tire Centers. These Service & Tire Centers are designed to capture market share and leverage the existing Supercenter and support infrastructure. The Company currently operates stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico. The Company has eight operating segments defined by geographic regions. Each Pep Boys Supercenter carries a similar product line, with variations based on the number and type of cars in the market where the store is located. A Pep Boys Service & Tire Center carries tires and a limited selection of its products. The Company's product lines include: tires batteries; new and remanufactured parts for domestic and import vehicles; chemicals and maintenance items; fashion, electronic, and performance accessories; and a limited amount of select non-automotive merchandise. In addition to offering various high quality name brand products, the Company sells an array of high quality products under various private label names. The Company sells tires under the names DEFINITY, FUTURA and CORNELL, and batteries under the name PROSTART. It also sells wheel covers under the name FUTURA; air filters, anti-freeze, chemicals, cv axles, hub assemblies, lubricants, oil, oil filters, oil treatments, transmission fluids, custom wheels and wiper blades under the name PROLINE; alternators, battery booster packs, alkaline type batteries and starters under the name PROSTART; power steering hoses, chassis parts and power steering pumps under the name PROSTEER; brakes under the name PROSTOP and brakes, batteries, starters, ignitions and chassis under the name VALUEGRADE. The Company's commercial automotive parts delivery program, branded PEP EXPRESS PARTS, is designed to increase the Company's market share with the professional installer and to leverage its inventory investment. The program satisfies the commercial customer's automotive inventory needs by taking advantage of the breadth and quality of the Company's parts inventory as well as its experience supplying its own service bays and mechanics. The Company has a point-of-sale system in all of its stores, which gathers sales and inventory data by stock-keeping unit from each store on a daily basis. It has an electronic parts catalog that allows its associates to efficiently look up the parts that its customers need
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