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Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack (FRA:PBS) Predictability Rank


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What is Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack (FRA:PBS) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack began operations in 1921. The Company together with its subsidiaries offers automotive service, tires, parts and accessories. The Company operates in the U.S. automotive aftermarket, which has two general lines of business: the Service business, commonly known as Do-It-For-Me, or "DIFM" (service labor, installed merchandise and tires) and the Retail business, commonly known as Do-It-Yourself, or "DIY" (retail merchandise) and commercial. The Company's store format is the Supercenter, which serves both "DIFM" and "DIY" customers with quality service offerings and merchandise. The Company is complementing the existing Supercenter store base with Service & Tire Centers. These Service & Tire Centers are designed to capture market share and leverage the existing Supercenter and support infrastructure. The Company currently operates stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico. The Company has eight operating segments defined by geographic regions. Each Pep Boys Supercenter carries a similar product line, with variations based on the number and type of cars in the market where the store is located. A Pep Boys Service & Tire Center carries tires and a limited selection of its products. The Company's product lines include: tires batteries; new and remanufactured parts for domestic and import vehicles; chemicals and maintenance items; fashion, electronic, and performance accessories; and a limited amount of select non-automotive merchandise. In addition to offering various high quality name brand products, the Company sells an array of high quality products under various private label names. The Company sells tires under the names DEFINITY, FUTURA and CORNELL, and batteries under the name PROSTART. It also sells wheel covers under the name FUTURA; air filters, anti-freeze, chemicals, cv axles, hub assemblies, lubricants, oil, oil filters, oil treatments, transmission fluids, custom wheels and wiper blades under the name PROLINE; alternators, battery booster packs, alkaline type batteries and starters under the name PROSTART; power steering hoses, chassis parts and power steering pumps under the name PROSTEER; brakes under the name PROSTOP and brakes, batteries, starters, ignitions and chassis under the name VALUEGRADE. The Company's commercial automotive parts delivery program, branded PEP EXPRESS PARTS, is designed to increase the Company's market share with the professional installer and to leverage its inventory investment. The program satisfies the commercial customer's automotive inventory needs by taking advantage of the breadth and quality of the Company's parts inventory as well as its experience supplying its own service bays and mechanics. The Company has a point-of-sale system in all of its stores, which gathers sales and inventory data by stock-keeping unit from each store on a daily basis. It has an electronic parts catalog that allows its associates to efficiently look up the parts that its customers need

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