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ICTS International NV (ICTS International NV) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of May. 21, 2024)


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What is ICTS International NV Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, ICTS International NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of ICTS International NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Security & Protection Services subindustry, ICTS International NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


ICTS International NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Business Services Industry

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, ICTS International NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ICTS International NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



ICTS International NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.79

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


ICTS International NV  (OTCPK:ICTSF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


ICTS International NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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ICTS International NV (ICTS International NV) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Walaardt Sacrestraat 425-5, 1117 BM Schiphol-Oost, Amsterdam, NH, NLD, 1117
ICTS International NV provides aviation security and other aviation services. Business activity of the firm is operated through Corporate, Airport security and other aviation services, and Authentication Technology segments. The Airport security and other aviation segment provide security and other services to airlines and airport authorities, predominantly in Europe and the U.S. The Authentication technology segment is involved in the development and sale of authentication security software to financial and other institutions. The geographical presence of the company in Germany, United States, Netherlands, Spain and Other countries out of its majority of the revenue generated from Germany.
Executives
Rom Shaked other: Managing Director 79 EERSTE OOSTERPARKSTRAAT, AMSTERDAM P7 1091GW
Igal Tabori 10 percent owner 19 ALUMIM STREET, TEL AVIV L3 69690
Philip Getter director, 10 percent owner PRIME CHARTER LTD, 810 SEVENTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Spencer Corp 10 percent owner AM HANSAKAI 14, ROSTOCK 2M 18147
Menachem Atzmon director ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 2412, NEW YORK NY 10020
David W Sass director, 10 percent owner 260 MADISON AVE 18TH FLR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Gail Lieberman director 175 EAST 79TH STREET, APT. 4D, NEW YORK NY 10075
Gordon Hausmann director C/O CH. HAUSMANN & CO., 5 DE WALDEN COURT 85 NEW CAVENDISH STREE, LONDON X0 W1W6XD
Ron Atzmon director 18A YAAKOV STREET, TEL AVIV L3 6901552
Gil Atzmon director 2 HACHERMESH STREET, SAVYON L3 0000000000
Alon Raich director C/O ICTS INTERNATIONAL, N.V., BIESBOSCH 225, 1181 JC AMSTELVEEN P7 0000000000
Elie Housman director 600 WEST END AVENUE 12-CD, NEW YORK NY 10022
Amos Megides 10 percent owner 21 MOROD HANACHAL STREET, HOFIT L3 40300
Ran Langer officer: Managing Director ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 2412, NEW YORK NY 10020
Dan Avraham officer: Managing Director ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 2412, NEW YORK NY 10020

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