What is ICTS International NV Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
ICTS International NV Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
ICTS International NV (ICTS International NV) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Walaardt Sacrestraat 425-5, 1117 BM Schiphol-Oost, Amsterdam, NH, NLD, 1117
ICTS International NV provides aviation security and other aviation services. Business activity of the firm is operated through Corporate, Airport security and other aviation services, and Authentication Technology segments. The Airport security and other aviation segment provide security and other services to airlines and airport authorities, predominantly in Europe and the U.S. The Authentication technology segment is involved in the development and sale of authentication security software to financial and other institutions. The geographical presence of the company in Germany, United States, Netherlands, Spain and Other countries out of its majority of the revenue generated from Germany.
Executives
| Rom Shaked |
other: Managing Director |
79 EERSTE OOSTERPARKSTRAAT, AMSTERDAM P7 1091GW |
| Igal Tabori |
10 percent owner |
19 ALUMIM STREET, TEL AVIV L3 69690 |
| Philip Getter |
director, 10 percent owner |
PRIME CHARTER LTD, 810 SEVENTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Spencer Corp |
10 percent owner |
AM HANSAKAI 14, ROSTOCK 2M 18147 |
| Menachem Atzmon |
director |
ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 2412, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| David W Sass |
director, 10 percent owner |
260 MADISON AVE 18TH FLR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Gail Lieberman |
director |
175 EAST 79TH STREET, APT. 4D, NEW YORK NY 10075 |
| Gordon Hausmann |
director |
C/O CH. HAUSMANN & CO., 5 DE WALDEN COURT 85 NEW CAVENDISH STREE, LONDON X0 W1W6XD |
| Ron Atzmon |
director |
18A YAAKOV STREET, TEL AVIV L3 6901552 |
| Gil Atzmon |
director |
2 HACHERMESH STREET, SAVYON L3 0000000000 |
| Alon Raich |
director |
C/O ICTS INTERNATIONAL, N.V., BIESBOSCH 225, 1181 JC AMSTELVEEN P7 0000000000 |
| Elie Housman |
director |
600 WEST END AVENUE 12-CD, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Amos Megides |
10 percent owner |
21 MOROD HANACHAL STREET, HOFIT L3 40300 |
| Ran Langer |
officer: Managing Director |
ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 2412, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| Dan Avraham |
officer: Managing Director |
ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 2412, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
ICTSF has been successfully added to your