What is United Online, Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, United Online,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of United Online,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Internet Content & Information subindustry, United Online,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
United Online,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Interactive Media Industry
For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, United Online,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where United Online,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
United Online, Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 50.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
United Online, (United Online,) Business Description
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United Online Inc is a Delaware corporation that commenced operations in 2001 following the merger of dial-up Internet access providers NetZero, Inc. (NetZero) and Juno Online Services, Inc. The Company provides consumer services and products over the Internet under a number of brands, including StayFriends, Trombi, MyPoints, NetZero, and Juno. The Company operates in two segments, namely Content & Media and Communications. The Content & Media segment provides social networking services and products under the StayFriends, and Trombi brands. It operates its social networking services as a platform to enable users to locate and interact with acquaintances from their past, with high school affiliations as the primary focus. Its domestic and international social networking services comprise a large and diverse population of users. It also provides advertising opportunities to marketers with both brand and direct response objectives through a full suite of display, search, email, and text-link opportunities across its various properties. Its social networking products primarily consist of yearbook reprints. Its principal Communications pay service is dial-up Internet access, offered under the NetZero and Juno brands. It also offers mobile broadband, DSL, email, Internet security, web hosting services, and other services. Each of its services, including social networking services, loyalty marketing service, and Internet access services operates on a separate and distinct technology platform. The Company has international operations in India and Germany. Its operations in India primarily handle software development and operations, quality assurance and email customer support. Its operations in Germany provide social networking services in Germany, Sweden, France, Austria, and Switzerland. It competes with major social networking platforms such as Facebook, as well as Internet search engines such as Google, other online loyalty marketing programs, such as Ebates, as well as offline loyalty marketing programs that have a significant online presence, such as those operated by credit card, airline and hotel companies, members from online providers of discounted offerings and coupons, such as Groupon and LivingSocial, as well as AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile. The Company is subject to a number of international, federal, state, and local laws and regulations, including, without limitation, those relating to taxation, bulk email or "spam," advertising, user privacy and data protection, consumer protection, antitrust, export, and unclaimed property.
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