United Online, (United Online,) Predictability Rank

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What is United Online, Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Online, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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United Online, (United Online,) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » United Online, Inc. (NAS:UNTDV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

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Address

Website

http://www.unitedonline.net

United Online Inc is a Delaware corporation that commenced operations in 2001 following the merger of dial-up Internet access providers NetZero, Inc. (NetZero) and Juno Online Services, Inc. The Company provides consumer services and products over the Internet under a number of brands, including StayFriends, Trombi, MyPoints, NetZero, and Juno. The Company operates in two segments, namely Content & Media and Communications. The Content & Media segment provides social networking services and products under the StayFriends, and Trombi brands. It operates its social networking services as a platform to enable users to locate and interact with acquaintances from their past, with high school affiliations as the primary focus. Its domestic and international social networking services comprise a large and diverse population of users. It also provides advertising opportunities to marketers with both brand and direct response objectives through a full suite of display, search, email, and text-link opportunities across its various properties. Its social networking products primarily consist of yearbook reprints. Its principal Communications pay service is dial-up Internet access, offered under the NetZero and Juno brands. It also offers mobile broadband, DSL, email, Internet security, web hosting services, and other services. Each of its services, including social networking services, loyalty marketing service, and Internet access services operates on a separate and distinct technology platform. The Company has international operations in India and Germany. Its operations in India primarily handle software development and operations, quality assurance and email customer support. Its operations in Germany provide social networking services in Germany, Sweden, France, Austria, and Switzerland. It competes with major social networking platforms such as Facebook, as well as Internet search engines such as Google, other online loyalty marketing programs, such as Ebates, as well as offline loyalty marketing programs that have a significant online presence, such as those operated by credit card, airline and hotel companies, members from online providers of discounted offerings and coupons, such as Groupon and LivingSocial, as well as AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile. The Company is subject to a number of international, federal, state, and local laws and regulations, including, without limitation, those relating to taxation, bulk email or "spam," advertising, user privacy and data protection, consumer protection, antitrust, export, and unclaimed property.