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NeurogesX (NeurogesX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $ (As of May. 26, 2024)


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What is NeurogesX Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-26), NeurogesX's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

NeurogesX's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for NeurogesX is

The historical rank and industry rank for NeurogesX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

NGSX's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Drug Manufacturers industry.
Industry Median: 1.14
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

NeurogesX Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for NeurogesX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

NeurogesX Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

NeurogesX Annual Data
Trend Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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NeurogesX Semi-Annual Data
Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of NeurogesX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic subindustry, NeurogesX's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


NeurogesX's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, NeurogesX's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where NeurogesX's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



NeurogesX Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = %
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

NeurogesX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=*
=

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= ( - 0.005) /

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


NeurogesX  (OTCPK:NGSX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


NeurogesX Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of NeurogesX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


NeurogesX (NeurogesX) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
NeurogesX, Inc. was incorporated in California as Advanced Analgesics, Inc. on May 28, 1998 and changed its name to NeurogesX, Inc. in September 2000. In February 2007, it reincorporated into Delaware. It is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel pain management therapies. It is assembling a portfolio of pain management product candidates based on known chemical entities to develop innovative new therapies that might offer substantial advantages over currently available treatment options. The Company's initial focus is on the management of chronic peripheral neuropathic pain conditions. The Company's first commercial product, Qutenza, the first prescription strength capsaicin product is a dermal delivery system designed to treat certain neuropathic pain conditions and was approved by the U.S, Food and Drug Administration, or FDA in November 2009 for the management of neuropathic pain associated with postherpetic neuralgia, or PHN. It is currently preparing to commercialize Qutenza in the United States with its own sales force and that Qutenza would be commercially available in the United States in the first half of 2010. Qutenza is a non-narcotic analgesic formulated in a localized treatment patch containing an 8% concentration of synthetic capsaicin. Capsaicin is released from the patch and, with the aid of penetration enhancers, penetrates into the skin during application without significant absorption of capsaicin into the bloodstream. The users of Qutenza are unlikely to experience the common central nervous system side effects of systemically administered drugs used to treat neuropathic pain such as anti-convulsants, anti-depressants and opioids and the potential for abuse and addiction associated with some of these drugs. It is currently evaluating the nature, scope and timing of continued development of Qutenza to support the potential for label expansion in the United States. Areas of potential focus for label expansion include HIV-distal sensory neuropathy, or HIV-DSP, also known as HIV-associated neuropathy, or HIV-AN, painful diabetic neuropathy, or PDN, and potentially other neuropathic pain indications. It expects that Qutenza would compete against, and may be used in combination with, well-established products currently used both on and off-label in its target indications. The most directly competitive currently marketed products in the United States are Lidoderm, an FDA-approved 5% lidocaine topical patch for the treatment of PHN marketed by Endo Pharmaceuticals, and Lyrica, an oral anti-convulsant, marketed by Pfizer for use in the treatment of PHN. Regulation by governmental authorities in the United States and other countries is a significant factor in the development, manufacture and marketing of pharmaceuticals.
Executives
Ron Martell officer: President and CEO PONIARD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 330, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Stephen F Ghiglieri officer: Exec. V.P., COO & CFO C/O NEUROGESX INC., 981 INDUSTRIAL ROAD SUITE F, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Robert Nelsen director, 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Steven H Nelson director 21650 OXNARD STREET, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Gary A Lyons director 12790 EL CAMINO REAL, C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Bradford S Goodwin director 5000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 101, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John A Orwin director C/O RELYPSA, INC., 700 SAGINAW DR., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Jean Jacques Bienaime director 925 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Anthony A Ditonno director, officer: President and CEO C/O OXYGEN BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE COPLEY PARKWAY, STE. 490, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Jeffrey K Tobias officer: CMO, EVP Research & Deve C/O NEUROGESX INC, 981 INDUSTRIAL ROAD SUITE F, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Moshe Arkin 10 percent owner, other: also member of 10% owner group 6 HACHOSHLIM ST., HERZELIA L3 4672406
Keith Crandell 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Clinton Bybee 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Steven Lazarus 10 percent owner 8755 WEST HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners V Llc 10 percent owner C/O ARCH VENTURE PARTNERS, 8755 W. HIGGINS AVE. #1025, CHICAGO IL 60631

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