What is BioVie Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BioVie Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BioVie (BioVie) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
680 W Nye Lane, Suite 204, Carson, NV, USA, 89703
BioVie Inc is a clinical-stage company developing innovative drug therapies to treat chronic debilitating conditions including liver disease and neurological and neuro-degenerative disorders and certain cancers. The Company is conducting a potentially pivotal Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, multicenter study to evaluate NE3107 in patients who have mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. BIV201 has the potential to improve the health of thousands of patients suffering from life-threatening complications of liver cirrhosis due to hepatitis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and alcoholism.
Executives
| Steve Gorlin |
director |
150 GULF SHORE DRIVE, UNIT 601, DESTIN FL 32541 |
| Cuong V Do |
director |
C/O BIOVIE, 2120 COLORADO AVENUE, SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Richard J Berman |
director |
305 COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| James Paul Lang |
director |
C/O BIOVIE, 2120 COLORADO AVENUE, SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Michael Edward Sherman |
director |
C/O BIOVIE, 2120 COLORADO AVENUE, SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Robert J Hariri |
director |
341 MENDHAM ROAD, BERNARDSVILLE NJ 07924 |
| Joanne Wendy Kim |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O BIOVIE, INC, 2120 COLORADO AVENUE, SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Joseph M Palumbo |
other: Chief Medical Officer |
616 BROOKSIDE AVENUE, SAINT DAVIDS PA 19087 |
| Jonathan M Adams |
officer: EVP Liver Cirrhosis Programs |
100 CUMMINGS CENTER 247C, BEVERLY MA 01915 |
| Penelope Markham |
officer: EVP Liver Cirrhosis R&D |
C/O BIOVIE, INC, 2120 COLORADO AVENUE, SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Christopher Reading |
officer: EVP Neuroscience R&D |
C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Clarence N. Ahlem |
officer: EVP of Product Development |
5305 RENAISSANCE AVE., SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Mina Sooch |
director |
17199 N. LAUREL PARK DRIVE, SUITE 401, LIVONIA MI 48152 |
| Sigmund Rogich |
director |
C/O BIOVIE, 2120 COLORADO AVENUE, SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Patrick D Yeramian |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
1815 PARKSIDE CIRCLE SOUTH, BOCA RATON FL 33486 |
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