Bank of the James Financial Group (Bank of the James Financial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Bank of the James Financial Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bank of the James Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bank of the James Financial Group (Bank of the James Financial Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bank of the James Financial Group Inc (NAS:BOTJ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

828 Main Street, Lynchburg, VA, USA, 24504

Website

https://www.bankofthejames.bank

Bank of the James Financial Group Inc is a bank holding company that provides retail and commercial banking, deposit services, lending services, mortgage brokerage services and other banking services. The company provides a range of deposit services including checking accounts, savings accounts and other time deposits of various types, ranging from daily money market accounts to longer-term certificates of deposit. It offers various types of secured and unsecured consumer loans, including personal loans, lines of credit, overdraft lines of credit, automobile loans, installment loans, demand loans, and home equity loans. It operates three business segments, community banking; mortgage banking, and investment advisory services.

Executives

Phillip C Jamerson	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Bryant William C Iii	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Alford John R Jr	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Foster Watt R Jr	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Lewis C Addison	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
J Todd Scruggs	officer: Secretary-Treasurer	PO BOX 1200, LYNCHBURG VA 24505
Umberger Harry P Jr	officer: EVP - Chief Credit Officer	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Robert R Chapman	director, officer: President	PO BOX 1200, LYNCHBURG VA 24505
Dalton Aubrey Douglas Iii	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Petticolas Augustus A Jr	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Julie P Doyle	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Pettyjohn Thomas W Jr	director	PO BOX 1200, LYNCHBURG VA 24505
Michael A Syrek	officer: EVP - Senior Lending Officer	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Sorenson Eric John Jr	officer: EVP	828 MAIN STREET, LYNCHBURG VA 24504
Lydia K Langley	director	828 MAIN ST, LYNCHBURG VA 24504