CYREN (CYRNQ) Predictability Rank

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What is CYREN Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CYREN Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CYREN (CYRNQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CYREN Ltd (OTCPK:CYRNQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10 Ha-Menofim Street, 5th Floor, Herzliya, ISR, 4672561

Website

https://www.cyren.com

CYREN Ltd is a provider of cloud-delivered Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) cybersecurity solutions that protect businesses. Its cloud security products and services fall into the categories of Cyren Threat Detection Services; Cyren Threat Intelligence Data and Cyren Enterprise Email Security Products. It derives revenues from the sale of real-time cloud-based services for each of the company's email security, web security, anti-malware, and advanced threat protection offerings. The group has a business presence in Israel, the United States, Germany and other countries, of which prime revenue is derived from Israel. The company's offerings include Email Security Detection Engine, Malware Detection Engine, Web Security Engine, Phishing Intelligence, Malware Intelligence and other services.

Executives

Brian Joseph Dunn	officer: General Counsel	C/O CYREN INC., 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD STE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Phillip Brady Hayden	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Lior Kohavi	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O CYREN INC.,, 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Michael Fleck	officer: VP Marketing	C/O CYREN INC., 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD STE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Eva Lilias Markowitz	officer: VP, HUMAN RESOURCES	C/O CYREN INC.,, 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Bruce Harold Johnson	officer: VP, SALES - NORTH AMERICA	C/O CYREN INC., 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Michael Tamir	officer: VP, GLOBAL SUPPORT SERVICES	C/O CYREN INC.,, 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Isaac Dvir	officer: SVP Engineering	C/O CYREN INC., 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD STE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Brett Michael Jackson	officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	C/O CYREN INC., 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Kenneth Tarpey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190
Atif Ahmed	officer: VP OF SALES, EMEA	C/O CYREN INC.,, 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Sigurdur Arnar Stefnisson	officer: VP, THREAT RESEARCH	C/O CYREN INC.,, 1430 SPRING HILL ROAD, SUITE 330, MCLEAN VA 22102
Cary Davis	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Brian Chang	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Rajveer Kushwaha	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017