Dorchester Minerals LP (Dorchester Minerals LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Dorchester Minerals LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dorchester Minerals LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dorchester Minerals LP (Dorchester Minerals LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Dorchester Minerals LP (NAS:DMLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3838 Oak Lawn Avenue, Suite 300, Dallas, TX, USA, 75219

Website

https://www.dmlp.net

Dorchester Minerals LP operates as the owner of producing and non-producing crude oil and natural gas mineral, royalty, overriding royalty, net profits, and leasehold interests. The company generates revenues from royalties, net profits interests, lease bonus, and others. It has leasehold interests in approximately 592 counties and parishes in around 28 states.

Executives

Dorchester Minerals Operating Lp	other: Entity Under Common Control	3838 OAK LAWN AVE, STE 300, DALLAS TX 75219
Bradley J Ehrman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3838 OAK LAWN AVE, STE 300, DALLAS TX 75219
Leslie A Moriyama	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3838 OAK LAWN AVE, STE 300, DALLAS TX 75219
William Casey Mcmanemin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O DORCHESTER MINERALS, L.P., 3838 OAK LAWN, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75219
Martha Rochelle	director	3838 OAK LAWN AVENUE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75219
Allen H C Jr	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	3838 OAK LAWN, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75219
Robert C Vaughn	director	3838 OAK LAWN AVENUE, SUITE 710, DALLAS TX 75219
Allen D Lassiter	director	25 HIGHLAND PARK VILLAGE, STE 100-780, DALLAS TX 75205
James E Raley	director, officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	9666 ATHERTON DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75243
Buford P Berry	director	1700 PACIFIC, SUITE 3300, DALLAS TX 75201
Charles William Russell	director	4695 N FM 2869, WINNSBORO TX 75494
Preston A Peak	director	3838 OAK LAWN AVENUE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75219
Ronald Paul Trout	director	1241 MOHAWK TRAIL, RICHARDSON, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Lucent Technologies Inc. Master Pension Trust	10 percent owner	600 MOUNTAIN AVENUE, ROOM 7D-523, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974
Wolf Partners Red	10 percent owner	3738 OAK LAWN AVE STE 300, DALLAS TX 75201