eFuture Holding (eFuture Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is eFuture Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

eFuture Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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eFuture Holding (eFuture Holding) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » eFuture Holding Inc (NAS:EFUT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Address

Website

http://www.e-future.com.cn

E-Future Information Technology, Inc., established under the Cayman Islands Companies Law on November 2, 2000. The Company changed its name from 'e-Future Information Technology Inc.' to 'eFuture Information Technology Inc.' in December 2008. It provides software and services to China's retail and consumer goods industries. It offers one-stop, end-to-end integrated portfolio of software and services from factory to consumer on seven verticals: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Department Store, Shopping Mall, Grocery, Logistics, Specialty Store and Online Retailers. Its clients include manufacturers, distributors, resellers, logistics companies and retailers. The Company's client base encompasses corporations such as Procter & Gamble, Pepsi, L'Oreal, Kimberly-Clark, Gucci and B&Q as well as Chinese companies. The Company has three business lines: software, professional services and cloud service. Its software solutions include the management of merchandizing, distribution, warehousing, supply chains, customer relationships, logistics and points of sale. It consists of three deployable groups of products: Foundation Solutions, Collaborative Solutions and Intelligent Solutions. Foundation Solutions - are used to meet client needs for services such as retail management, point of sale ('POS'), distribution management, logistics management, warehouse management, vendor payment and control and loyalty card management. Collaborative Solutions - are used to meet client needs for services such as visual SCM and visual process management systems. Depending on the type of customer and their needs, clients use a variety of Collaborative Solutions. Intelligent Solutions - are used to meet client needs for services such as business intelligence, brand analysis, supplier relationship management and customer relationship management systems. Professional Services includes recurring maintenance and support services on existing software installations, delivery services, consulting services and outsourcing services. Maintenance and Support Service - is provided following the installation of its software solutions, as clients will typically require ongoing maintenance support and software upgrades to ensure the efficient operation of their system. Consulting Service - is provided by its consulting services group which consists of business consultants, systems analysts and technical personnel. Outsourcing Service - is flexible by design to meet its clients' changing requirements. Cloud Service consists of cloud services based on cloud computing architecture, such as Salesforce Automation. Its regional service centers in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Xi'an, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chongqing and Shenzhen.