Fat Projects Acquisition (Fat Projects Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Fat Projects Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fat Projects Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fat Projects Acquisition (Fat Projects Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Fat Projects Acquisition Corp (NAS:FATP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

27 Bukit Manis Road, Sentosa Golf Club, Singapore, SGP, 099892

Website

https://www.fatprojectscorp.com

Fat Projects Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

David E Shaw	10 percent owner	120 WEST FORTY-FIFTH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
D. E. Shaw Valence Portfolios, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	120 WEST FORTY-FIFTH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
D. E. Shaw & Co, L.p.	10 percent owner	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NINTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
D. E. Shaw & Co, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NINTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Aqr Capital Management Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE GREENWICH PLAZA, GREENWICH CT 06830
Fat Projects International Investments & Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	27 BUKIT MANIS ROAD, SENTOSA GOLF CLUB, SINGAPORE U0 099892
Aqr Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	ONE GREENWICH PLAZA, GREENWICH CT 06830
Aqr Arbitrage Llc	10 percent owner	ONE GREENWICH PLAZA, GREENWICH CT 06830
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc.	10 percent owner	16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6
Fat Projects Spac Pte. Ltd.	10 percent owner	27 BUKIT MANIS ROAD, SENTOSA GOLF CLUB, SINGAPORE U0 099892
Stan Sugarman	director	27 BUKIT MANIS ROAD, SENTOSA GOLF CLUB, SINGAPORE U0 099892
Tristan Lo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	27 BUKIT MANIS ROAD, SENTOSA GOLF CLUB, SINGAPORE U0 099892
Tina Wyer	director	27 BUKIT MANIS ROAD, SENTOSA GOLF CLUB, SINGAPORE U0 099892
Nils Michaelis	officer: President, COO, Head of M&A	27 BUKIT MANIS ROAD, SENTOSA GOLF CLUB, SINGAPORE U0 099892
Samir Addamine	director	27 BUKIT MANIS ROAD, SENTOSA GOLF CLUB, SINGAPORE U0 099892