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FCCC (FCIC) Predictability Rank


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What is FCCC Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FCCC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

FCCC Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of FCCC's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

FCCC (FCIC) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » FCCC Inc (OTCPK:FCIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MAYX BOTH NHYF NSTD GMNI ATYG YBCN MEIL BFYW GFOO BOM:543385 PBAJ CVII AACT LSE:ADMR ANSC NETD WFHG SCRM RRAC
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
40 Wall St, Floor 60, New York City, NY, USA, 10005
Website
https://www.fcic.us
FCCC Inc is a shell company.
Executives
Frederick L Farrar director C/O WINDROSE MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, 3502 WOODVIEW TRACE #210, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
Fnu Oudom director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and President 7700 IRVINE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 800, IRVINE CA 92618
American Public Investment Co. 10 percent owner 7700 IRVINE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 800, IRVINE CA 92618
Caren D. Currier officer: Chief Financial Officer 7700 IRVINE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 800, IRVINE CA 92618
Huijun He 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Vice President 7700 IRVINE CENTER DRIVE STE 800, IRVINE CA 92618
Chafre, Llc 10 percent owner 3502 WOODVIEW TRACE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46032
Fred Merritt director, 10 percent owner 14510 LIMA ROAD, FORT WAYNE IN 46818
Lfm Investments, Inc. 10 percent owner 3924 KITTY HAWK COURT, CARMEL IN 46033
Daniel R Loftus director, officer: Secretary 5210 HEATHROW HILLS DRIVE, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Claudia B Carucci 10 percent owner 17 EAGLE ISLAND PLACE, SHELDON SC 29941-3017
Uncle Mills Partners, Llc 10 percent owner 17 EAGLE ISLAND PLACE, SHELDON SC 29941-3017
Robert Edward Humphreys 10 percent owner PO BOX 990423, BOSTON MA 02199-0423
Zimmerman Bernard & Co Inc 10 percent owner, other: Affiliate of President of Co. 18 HIGH MEADOW ROAD, WESTON CT 06883
Carucci Walter P /ny 10 percent owner C/O CARR SECURITIES CORP, 14 VANDERVENTER AVENUE, SUITE 210, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Lawrence R Yurdin director 431B N TRAIL, STRATFORD CT 06815

FCCC (FCIC) Headlines

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