What is Financial Institutions Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Financial Institutions Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Financial Institutions (Financial Institutions) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
220 Liberty Street, Warsaw, NY, USA, 14569
Financial Institutions Inc operates as a financial holding company, engages in the provision of a wide range of consumer and commercial banking services to individuals, municipalities, and businesses in Western and Central New York. It operates through the following segments: The Banking segment which includes all of the company's retail and commercial banking operations and All Other includes the activities of SDN, a full-service insurance agency that provides a broad range of insurance services to both personal and business clients.
Executives
| Donald Boswell |
director |
WESTERN NY PUBLIC BROADCASTING ASSOC, HORIZONS PLAZA 140 LOWER TERRACE, BUFFALO NY 14202 |
| Susan R Holliday |
director |
220 LIBERTY ST, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Samuel M Gullo |
director |
220 LIBERTY ST, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Robert N Latella |
director |
220 LIBERTY, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Robert M Glaser |
director |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Dorn Andrew W Jr |
director |
2421 MAIN STREET, BUFFALO NY 14214 |
| Plants William Jack Ii |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Burruano Samuel J Jr |
officer: Senior Vice President |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Martin Kearney Birmingham |
officer: Senior Vice President |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Gary A. Pacos |
officer: Chief Risk Officer |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Bruce W Harting |
director |
1185 PARK AVENUE, 6D, NEW YORK NY 10128 |
| Laurie R Collins |
officer: Senior Vice President |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Mark Zupan |
director |
1041 PITTSFORD VICTOR ROAD, PITTSFORD NY 14534 |
| Mauricio F Riveros |
director |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
| Kevin B Quinn |
officer: Senior Vice President |
220 LIBERTY STREET, WARSAW NY 14569 |
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