Exelis (FRA:6EX) Predictability Rank

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What is Exelis Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Exelis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Exelis (FRA:6EX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Exelis Inc (FRA:6EX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Traded in Other Exchanges

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Address

Website

http://www.exelisinc.com

Exelis Inc was incorporated in the state of Indiana on May 4, 2011. The Company is a diversified aerospace, defense, information and services Company. The Company operates in two segments: Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) Electronics and Systems and Information and Technical Services to military, government and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. The C4ISR Electronics and Systems segment provides engineered systems and solutions, including: ISR systems; integrated electronic warfare systems; radar and sonar systems; electronic attack and release systems; communications solutions; space systems; and composite aerostructures, for government and commercial customers. The Information and Technical Services segment provides a broad range of service solutions, including: systems integration; network design and development; air traffic management; cyber; intelligence; operations; sustainment; advanced engineering; logistics; and space launch and range-support, for U.S. military and U.S. Government customers. The C4ISR Electronics and Systems' products are classified into Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Systems, Integrated Electronic Warfare Systems, Electronic Attack and Release Systems, Radar, Reconnaissance and Undersea Systems, Communications Solutions, Night Vision, Positioning, Navigation and Timing, Aerostructures, and Specialty Applications. Information and Technical Services product lines are classified into Advanced Information Solutions, Civil and Aerospace Systems, Command, Control and Communications Systems, Infrastructure Asset Management, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, and Information Technology and Network Communication Services. The Company's customers include the United States Department of Defense, including U.S. Army, Navy, Marines and Air Force, U.S. Government intelligence agencies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Federal Aviation Administration. The Company competes against companies such as Lockheed Martin Corporation, The Boeing Company, Raytheon Company, General Dynamics Corporation, L-3 Communications Corporation, SAIC Inc., Northrop Grumman Corporation, Harris Corporation and BAE Systems, Inc. Internationally, it also competes against these same companies as well as Thales Group, EADS N.V., Finmeccanica S.p.A., among others The Company is subject to federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations.

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