RadioShack (FRA:TAN) Predictability Rank

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What is RadioShack Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RadioShack Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

RadioShack Predictability Rank Related Terms

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RadioShack (FRA:TAN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » RadioShack Corp (FRA:TAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.radioshack.com

RS Legacy Corp, formerlyÂ RadioShack Corp was incorporated in 1967. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is primarily engaged in the retail sale of consumer electronics goods and services through its RadioShack store chain. At December 31, 2013, it operated 4,297 U.S. company-operated stores under the RadioShack brand located throughout the United States, as well as in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These stores are located in strip centers and shopping malls, as well as individual storefronts. Each location carries a broad assortment of both name brand and private brand consumer electronics products. The Company's product lines are categorized into two platforms; namely mobility and retail. Its mobility platform includes postpaid and prepaid wireless handsets, commissions, residual income, prepaid wireless airtime, tablet devices, and e-readers. The retail platform includes remaining consumer electronics product categories and related accessories; batteries and power products; and technical products. The Company has other sales channels and support operations such as: Dealer Outlets, RadioShack de Mexico, RadioShack.com, Distribution Centers, RadioShack Technology Services and RadioShack Global Sourcing. The Company owns or is licensed to use many trademarks and service marks related to its RadioShack stores in the United States and in foreign countries. Its private brand manufactured products are sold under the RadioShack, AUVIO, Enercell and Gigaware trademark. It also owns patents and patent applications relating to consumer electronics products. The Company competes in the sale of its products and services with several retail formats, including national, regional, and independent consumer electronics retailers. It competes with department and specialty retail stores in certain product categories. It competes with wireless providers in mobility platform through their own retail and online presence. It also competes with big-box retailers, discount and warehouse retailers, and Internet retailers. The Company is subject to foreign, federal, state, and local laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the Fair Labor Standards Act and ERISA, each as amended, and regulations promulgated by the Federal Trade Commission, SEC, Internal Revenue Service, Department of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and Environmental Protection Agency.